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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (6506)	7/8/2001 2:35:44 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 209892

could be... we shall see...

To: AllansAlias who wrote (6506)	7/8/2001 2:45:29 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I Am Beginning To Think That futures trading (at least trading of the type that we do (i.e. very short term) does not benefit from, and may be harmed by, any knowledge or expectations concerning future market movement. I wonder if we would do better or worse if we entered the market randomly, and exited every trade once it had gone the opposite direction from the trade by a predetermined amount For example, whenever we feel like it we take a long position. We then keep the position open until the index has gone down from the highest level attained from the start of the trade by 1 1/2 points, again just for example. Would that be more or less profitable than what we are currently doing. Then if you wanted to explore the possibility of improving the result test if a determining whether the result was better or worse if the position or the trade (long or short) was determining by some statistical measure of trend, and then test if the result were improved by changing the amount of the stop loss, either initially, once the trade reaches a certain degree of profitability, based on a simple statistical model of the market. Are you sure that our informed trades are producing better results than those that would be produced by a few simple rules? Does anyone have one of those "fancy" systems that allows backtesting and a reasonable amount of intra-day data who would be interested in finding out?