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To: mishedlo who wrote (111647)	7/8/2001 2:28:06 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

The market could have a decent bounce any day now. But with the S&P 500 still 20% overvalued by the Fed's own model and the VIX still quite low around 25, I see all the major indexes testing their spring lows before too many weeks have passed. This decline will be much broader that the NAZ bust of the last year. Those who think old economy stocks will continue to hold are about to get a rude awakening IMHO.

To: mishedlo who wrote (111647)	7/8/2001 2:33:54 PM
From: 10K a day	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Donuts. We don't need cake. Donuts is the answer...

To: mishedlo who wrote (111647)	7/8/2001 3:53:49 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Monday -teusday will be last day to cover before next rally into end of JULY. INTC, YAHOO and Qcom will report good numbers and guidence provoking a good ST rally. I am covering Monday AM and going long some TRASH!

To: mishedlo who wrote (111647)	7/8/2001 5:37:27 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 436258

Well I've seen the trin spike that high before, but not that high two days in a row, or at least I don't recall it. It's not written in stone taht it was shorting what done it..however that is the most likely cause, and it don't mean we had a ton of shorts we just had more than the upticks could handle. They have to have an uptick in order to short and with only 7% of the volume to the upside I'm inclined to think every uptick they could get was shorted, still like I said that doesn't say tons of shorts and we could get more. Lets say I was a market maker who went short on the 2nd, and I see all these short orders sitting there that I can't fill for lack of buyers I would be tempted to cover just a 100 shares of my shorts in a way that creates an uptick so that I could fill that 10000 share short order , market makers work out of stock they hold short and they see what the public don't, they don't want to cover their own shorts until they see some buyers come into the market, but to make market they will cover some. With the light volume my best guess is that the market makers have covered about 60% in the last two days of what they went short on the top and still have about 40% to go. so depending on the volume ( even if buyers don't come in ) we could drop two more days or another 6% on the NDX but that's the max , by hook or crook they will make a rally by then if for no other reason than to get short more shares. If buyers do come it we get a gap down day MMs cover then we rally like a rocket followed by one or two gap up days were they knock off the stop loss orders. ---------------------- At any rate the MMs have such an advantage that once I figure they have covered over half their shorts I don't want to go short until we get another rally.. ------------------------ On the other topic, RE >> Why is this so damn hard for the govt to see? << I hate to say it but that looks to me that you both under rate and over rate them. They see all right, but most of them don't know what they can do about it and their primary concern is their own self interest. In other words they don't care as long as their own ass is covered. But tahts nothing new. ---------------------------------------------- I agree a star war defense is a stupid waste of money, < ( & they know that too ). Hell no one with any smarts at all would have to use a missile to knock off any major city in the U.S. As dumb as I am if I set my mind to it I could make N.Y. city into radioactive waste land and never use a bomb, and also do it cheaper than just the fuel in a missile would cost. I don't want to get into that very far, but China told the CIA years ago if we dared to use nukes on them ( during the Korean war ) they already had enough biological packages hidden in the U.S. to make sure we would pay more for taht mistake than for any damage we could do to them. They didn't have nukes but were and still are likely miles ahead of us in biological warfare tactics , and they don't need a missile to deliver em either. ------------------------------ Looking forward I see some real scary things the next generation is going to have to deal with , so far most of the terrorist are still in kinder garden , but they learn and we better spend the money now to beef up a defense against what comes in under the fence, as that's the biggest threat. Why ? because it's 10,000 times cheaper for them to sneak stuff in under the fence than to drop some stupid bomb on us. --------------------------------------------- Jim