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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gem-x who wrote (38893)	7/8/2001 6:08:15 PM
From: jpdunwell	Respond to of 100058

gem-x, I'm not in the market for a guru, but if I ever am, I'll be sure to look you up. As far as the accuracy of your calls, I am unable to keep up with them all, so I'll take your word for it. I was merely pointing out that even EW is not an exact science, and it is subject to changes and revisions, of which there have been plenty. Believe it or not, my post was not challenging your accuracy, but was a well-intentioned word of caution to not become fixated on an expected outcome based on one method to the exclusion of other possibilities. The market is a great teacher of humility. If you don't need that advice, that's fine too. As far as being a sheep, no thanks, I've drawn my own conclusions and I'm willing to live with them either way it turns out. I'm not going contrarian based on anything you or any other single person says. While you point out that most of the board is bearish, and I agree, I do not find that indicative of overall investor sentiment. Quite the opposite. There is almost an unshakeable faith that the Fed rate cuts are going to work their magic and instantly turn this economy around. My point is, I don't care if that's true, it still won't support the valuations that we're sporting now on a fundamental basis. All the positives that you listed won't do that. Did you take a look at the chart I posted? We are still at historical valuation peaks, in the face of a declining economy. No bear market, ever, has ended at such valuations (typically P/E's below 10 in such periods). Fed rate cuts have on average commenced with a P/E ratio about half of where they were when the Fed started this time (13 versus 25). Could it be that the Fed rate cuts are not the magic pill they are purported to be, and that valuations played a large role in stock returns after past Fed cuts? Fundamentals may not keep the market from moving up, but they do tell me to maintain caution, as this market is moving on speculation. I'm not advising you to bury your money in the backyard. I'm not even predicting which way we go here in the short-term, but my longer-term outlook is not for a return to the glory days anytime soon. Even if we get the surprise rate cut you mention, are you sure the market will react positively to that? Have you noticed the cuts are losing their punch? Can you envision that soon there may be a negative backlash associated, in that investors become worried that things must be really bad if another emergency cut is needed? We are very close to that line, in my opinion. So no, no sheep here, but you have placed yourself in a position to be either a guru or a goat. Only time will tell which. Good luck to you, JP

To: gem-x who wrote (38893)	7/8/2001 6:41:53 PM
From: JustTradeEm	Respond to of 100058

If that doesn't make a guru, and take guts of steel, I don't know what does. So, now you're calling yourself a guru ?? That's all I need to read ..... I've been posting on the E-Wave message board on SI, and all of the posters are half ass E-waver's with half ass opinions. I could have sworn some of those E-wavers would stand up and realize that the expanded flat is a clear breakthrough, but none have wanted to step up. There's a massive variety of opinions, which is pretty frightening. I followed the entire give and take, your answers to very valid questions were quite lacking to be honest. I showed him the clear A-B-C zigzag correction chart from 5100 to 1619, but he says it's "rubbish" and "fantasy". That was not what was said at all .... you're quite the BS artist .... in fact, they all agreed on your counts but you were asked what the corrective waves were correcting and to be honest, you had NO answer. Not only do you have a quite inflated opinion of yourself as can be seen by your "guru" annointing on yourself, but you have misstated the analysis presented as counterpoints to your own by well respected SI members. You should lower your opinion of yourself and increase your respect for others opinions. I will be happy to go to the trouble of posting all links to support what I've said above if the need arises. Good luck guru ..... JB