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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (48858)	7/8/2001 4:07:14 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, That was a good one - that semiconductor industry forecast. I think I mentioned this before, but there was this article in an investor magazine a while back titled "The Trouble With Humans". In it they argued that our fantastic pattern recognition skills, which work great in most other areas of life, will forever cause us to make horrible predictions. It seems that eons of evolution have equipped us with certain capabilities and a high level of confidence in these abilities that combine to make us into horrible forecasters when it comes to complex systems like that of our economy and the capital markets. I also saw that Barrons article on the "Busted Crystal Balls". We need to keep records of things like this so we can view the current day soothsayers with the proper perspective. Hope that creates a few sales for EMC at some point. John

To: Gottfried who wrote (48858)	7/8/2001 8:33:51 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

A review of of a number of financial web sites have pointed out that AMAT has recently broken key support levels. AMAT is now below its 13 day and 50 day moving averages. It has been my observation that there are a large quantity of tech stocks that will report between two and ten cents in earnings this quarter. And almost all of those stocks are in the sub $20.00 range. (CSCO, ORCL, SUNW, AMD) I have lightened up on AMAT at the 54 dollar range. Its not as much fun riding this stuff down as it used to be. Its also very difficult short term trading a stock on that slippery slide to the thirties. The recovery that we were all planning on in Jan. & Feb. now seems further away than it did six months ago. Do any of the AMAT bulls really belive that the investment community will be thrilled with the BTB ratios that will be here in two weeks? The mathematics of it all favor the bears. Many tech stocks are at least 70% off their highs. AMAT's high was $94.50 on July 17th. So a 70% price reduction puts AMAT in the $28.00 range. What makes this plausible is that AMAT has no earnings. It joins the ranks of many companies that are trading on their reputations. A gorilla without earnings is just another monkey in the group. Pass the bananas.... Jerome