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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (79721)	7/9/2001 12:07:07 AM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

Hey J, I think TraderAlan summed things up well over on the Daytrading Fundamentals board: "Re the MARKET, think everything is set up to devour the earnings reports (and company spin) that will pour out the next few weeks. Even though the technicals are barf at this point, think the market can rally for a few weeks if they get a few encouraging words from the blue chips." Big if, of course. In addition to earnings reports, the consumer sentiment and confidence reports this month should also be closely watched - preliminary Michigan sentiment #s for July, along with June PPI and retail sales come next Friday - the 13th (oh no!). (BTW, on that note: The Nasdaq closed on a numerological 13 last week... 2+0+0+4+1+6...) I do think the odds (i.e., those "barf" technicals as discerned from the charts) favor substantial additional movement downward - eventually. One traditional measuring implication for the current downtrend would be the mid 1800s on the COMPX. The Fib projection would be the high 1700s (maybe around the 4/5/01 reaction high), but there's lots of potential support, not to mention potential Fed action, between here and there. Breaking the 4/4 low would require, I think, more firming of the bear case, and getting there within six weeks would probably require some heavy news-driven piling on. Anyway, I'm glad I don't trade that time frame - I know it can be very profitable, but I just don't have the patience to wait six weeks to see how a trade turns out...