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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (111674)	7/8/2001 10:11:44 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 436258

Ok. only the shadow knows. they are not ready yet to give up the dollar. they will. but not yet. best you can do is pick the worst euro downside you can think of and take a stake... and hope for the best next year... thus far.... i think they have made a mess of it... and all at the end just before the physical introduction... HB will strongly disagree, and perhaps rightly so... but I don't think so now. I think they blew it for the time being... and all fiat paper will be suspect... of course i'm a gold bug as an alternative at the moment... but only because... of all the worthless paper. i think my game is better than your game.. gold first... rotate later.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (111674)	7/8/2001 10:34:39 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

the way i tend to look at the dollar is like any other bubble. there is usually some signs of weakness that show up, and there is a small break. that would be like the pullback in the dollar last year around the elections. something similar to that would be like the drop in stocks in 1998. 1998 got a lot of people bearish but there was one last parabolic run. gold had one last powerful run in 1980 after volcker said he was going to break the back of inflation and target the out of control money supply in oct 1979. well the drop in the dollar late last year got everyone bearish and it looks like we are on our way going parabolic once again. just from looking at the chart i would say the dollar better cave real soon (a double top) or it is going much higher. it looks like it is going into a blow off top where every last person gives up on other currencies and throws their money in a panic at the u.s. of course right then when everyone thinks it's a forgone conclusion that you have to be un u.s dollars, something will topple the whole house of cards and it will all come crashing down. i guess i am having the same argument with you that i have with mr blasnik about gold. i pretty much agree with you guys about the fundamentals and direction over time, but i think the market has so much momentum (up for dollar down for gold) that the markets are going to confound everyone and make people's jaws drop one last time before reversing. so i would definitely not go long the euro here. maybe it continues to freefall and the eu gets so fed up that they do something crazy like scrap the whole idea or back it with gold or something. i think there are going to be some major fireworks before the dollar finally tops. i just don't know where it is going to come from or what will cause it. i'm no currency expert, but i would go with the yen before the euro.