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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (48870)	7/8/2001 10:08:24 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Gottfried and threaders, the following quote is from the Bob Woodward book, MAESTRO. MAESTRO by Bob Woodward (Page 223) “According to Greenspan, Information technology, defined the current period. Something profoundly different had occurred. Computers and the Internet were at the root of the extraordinary productivity improvement. Computers allowed vastly better inventory management in a way that had been unimaginable only years before. What was truly remarkable, however, was the vast dissemination throughout society of the new technology and the speed of the dissemination. All of this dissemination added productivity growth throughout the economy. There was little question that further major advances lay ahead. They were truly in a capital equipment investment boom. . . Greenspan complimented Clinton on his efforts to use budget surpluses to reduce the federal debt. It’s a very powerful idea for the public, the president said, the idea of being debt free.” “If the federal government were debt free, Greenspan said, that would not take away its ability to do expansive things. Without debt, the government could eventually reborrow trillions of dollars if necessary in a crisis or an emergency. It would be available for the right moment. The surpluses and absence of deficits would also help keep long-term interest rates down, because the federal government would not be borrowing, and therefore, making more money available for business borrowing.”<b/> IMO, GS really screwed things up. The economic, "Philip Curve," philosophy on the FED who believed that we would have inflation below 6% did not take into consideration the above as the reason for low unemployment which was created by low interest rates and consequently increased corporate capital expenditures. With increased capital expenditures employees could be more productive and therefore keep down inflation. With GP's increase in rates, IMO, he caused the lowering of productivity, increased unemployment and increased inflation. It is a vicious circle.

To: Gottfried who wrote (48870)	7/8/2001 10:34:09 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried and threaders, I am trying to create a model to give me some indication as what technology to invest in. Using a pyramid, I divided it into the below six levels. Please critique my thoughts. If there is some madness to my thoughts do we start from the bottom or from the top to give us some indications in which stocks to buy. At the top level I included the telephone stocks, ie. SLB, AT&T, TCI, NOKIA, ETC. Second level from top I included the major suppliers to level one, ie. CSCO, NT, LU, JNPR. Third level from top is the suppliers to the level two, ie. PMC SERRA, JDSU, SYCAMORE. Level 4 is the computer stocks, APPLE, DELL, COMPACT, etc. Level 5 is the Semiconductors, ie. INTC, MOT, TXN, AMD MICRO TECHNOLOGY, etc. And, level six, bottom level, the semiconductor equipment stocks, AMAT, NVLS, KLIC KLAC, etc. My question is whether this pyramid is practical and logical? If it is then should the Software companies be added as the lowest level since software appears to fill the space on the hard drives, ie expansion from 32 RAM five years ago to 512 RAM coming down the tube. Software companies would be MSFT, CA, ORCL and others. Just my thoughts. Paul