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To: tekboy who wrote (44238)	7/9/2001 8:40:39 AM
From: Apollo	Respond to of 54805

I am struck by how little purchase we can get on some very important questions--how fast the wireless future will come on and what form it will take, what kinds of computer memory will dominate, what will happen with the storage and optical sectors, and so forth. I am more confident than ever, though, that the problems lie in the difficulty of the questions themselves and not in our efforts. I don't think anybody really knows the answers, that is, and most of the people who are close to the subjects are untrustworthy. I feel very lucky, therefore, to be able to go forward into the uncertain future knowing that I can listen in on such honest, intelligent, and informed discussions as the ones that take place here. Whatever happens, if we keep this hub in good shape, we'll be able to orient and reorient ourselves in pretty close to real time as and if necessary. Now that's a Cool Post. apollo

To: tekboy who wrote (44238)	7/9/2001 10:27:59 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re: QCOM - Wireless Week on The SpinCo Spin To Spin or not to Spin, that is the question, Whether it is nobler in the mind ... Message 16047180 - Eric -

To: tekboy who wrote (44238)	7/9/2001 10:54:23 AM
From: Judith Williams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Tek-- I am struck by how little purchase... Not only with wireless. I am struggling with this wrt a Hunt Report Don Mosher and I are doing on BEA. Even if one nails the competitive advantage/IP/value chain questions spot on (dubious at best), you then have to worry about timing/duration of that advantage and what value the market will assign to the whole kit and caboodle going forward. It's a distant memory (bad one) from the past, but I seem to recall from probability class that in cases like this the predictive quality of the assumptions falls off the cliff. Something like (P1) x (P2) x (P3) where P=probability P1=competitive advantage P2=time (CAP issues) P3=value market assigns (probability of various stock appreciation scenarios) It makes the head swim. For this neophyte G&Ker, the path of least resistance is to look hard at the ingredients of competitive advantage and then hope that the rest take care of themselves in time. --Judith

To: tekboy who wrote (44238)	7/9/2001 12:30:11 PM
From: Pirah Naman	Respond to of 54805

That little bird sings true. Thanks for the reminder, he who speaks with fowl. - Pirah

To: tekboy who wrote (44238)	7/9/2001 6:26:23 PM
From: rushnomore	Respond to of 54805

I feel very lucky... that I can listen in on such honest, intelligent, and informed discussions as the ones that take place here. Ditto.