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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: iod_sherwood who wrote (79748)	7/9/2001 1:28:36 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

The kind of math that you did on EMC is what seemed to have made investors nervous last week. It is the one stock that factored into my thinking. I really did not care about AMD...they are just now getting beaten up by Intel. Marconi was blamed for the selloff on Thursday...that was BS..everyone already knew how bad the telecom equipment sector is; I would call Thursday just a light volume selloff. But Friday.... I believe strongly that it was EMC that really put the scare into tech investors; it seems to be carried over into Monday. I don't believe it is as bad overall in the techs and therefore, there is potential for small suprises in the coming 2 weeks. If enough people start believing that we are hitting trough earnings this summer, they will buy now. Trough earnings for the PC sector are almost a certainty in this summer (imho) and investors are probably going to buy the sector ahead (ie..now) of the launch of Windows XP. Of course, I could be wrong on the techs near term ( protecting myself on the downside with cheap puts...just in case).

To: iod_sherwood who wrote (79748)	7/9/2001 1:45:01 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

EMC value is its dominance in a sector which is, over time, mandatory. Everyone has to store it. Right now maybe they're putting it off but they can't for long. Remember the internet revolution is still going big-time. EMC slowing down temporarily from 30% growth rate and has a 26 PE. It has 10 billion revenues a year and a market cap of 40 billion. 2-3 billion cash in the bank. It's dependent upon a tech recovery but unless you believe that's a long way off it's a great buy here because eventually everyone will have to pay them for storage again. All that intel has to go somewhere. And the recovery could be very sharp for a dominant niche player like EMC. Right now all tech stocks are under severe pressure. I'd buy the best like EMC, NOK, ERICY, INTC, AAPL (on their recall price drop?), IBM on any dips and just hold. A buying opportunity. That's the flipside of the argument. It's a bad time for techs but that may also be the best time to buy. I'm interested in trying to figure out where energy stocks will go from here. If you like earnings how about P (Phillips Petrol) at 7.3 PE and record profits? Why wouldn't you buy? Or UCL at 10 PE with a monopoly on patented cleaner gasoline formula. Every refiner has to pay them a royalty, like QCOM, and they've already won in the Supreme Court though EXxon is dragging their feet. APA's another cheap one. When do we see their profit reports? I'm tired of these tech warnings which are predictable. My prediction is that the greatest profits will be made in the companies which survive this downturn but which are now wrongly targeted as bankruptcy candidates. Cash is king so I'd pick SCNT. I also like PALM for value. KMAG as a recovery play. A little patience and you could get a move off the bottom like CMGI did from $1 - $5. And PALM should be takeover bait. As any of the smaller fallen angels might be.