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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffb_si who wrote (1555)	7/9/2001 12:11:02 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4051

Really hard to know what's going on in the minds of these gold mining execs? Big time denial IMHO. It's late in the fourth quarter and they're down about 10 points (and the other team has the ball). NDY (trades on TO): anticipated 2.4 million prod. Reserves are as of 6/30/00 last year so I will need to do a postscript when the annual report comes. NDY uses a peculiar $450 Aussie basis for reserves, which currency translates to only US 230. Exploration budget is $40 million which is right up there with much larger outfits like AU, NEM, and well above PDG and ABX. Their average cost of discovery is only $12/oz so this company may have a shot at actually maintaining reserves. NDY really has some good long life properties, and you can see the appeal to FN, UNTIL you come to the hedge book. They have about 7.65 million in forwards and 571K in call writes that are barely out of the money. In fact at the end of March (spot was US 269) they were negative US 132 million mark to market. This makes absolutely no sense especially with FN on the scene. They aren't establishing new hedging positions, but just delivering 200K a month from prod isn't enough. If they were to clear this book, NDY would be the best large cap gold play in the market IMO. Somehow I think that's what FN has in mind. The Good: Kalgoorlie: 409K @ cc 186, long life Yandal: 718K @ cc 168, has only 5 years reserve, but large resource (using 230 POG) that should extend the life. Tanami: 360K @ cc 153, 5 year reserve, but good recent passes at Ripcord resource should upgrade some. Pajingo: 120K @ cc 86, only a three year life unless exploration is successful (likely, but how much?). Ity: 28K @ cc 137, to 2009 Ovacik: 90K, 8 year life, I believe cc is projected at 180? TVX Normandy: NDY's share of 174K of four of these mines (Paracatu, Crixas, Musselwhite, La Coipa) comes in at cc of 140, and have lives of a decade or more. For those who care, I left La Coipa off of PDG's review. Their production share is 72K. One of the TVX mines is a dog, New Britannia (NDY-25, TVX-25, High River-50)with total prod. of 103K @ cc 213, life to 2006. NDY has a promising advanced stage six million ounce resource project in Ghana that will work at 300, but not 265: Yamfo-Sefwi/ Ntotoroso. The Ugly: Boddington: 100K @ cc 205. Needs to go underground to extend to long life, otherwise nearly depleted. Does it makes sense at 265? Martha: 70K @ cc 176 to 2007 The Bad: Mt. Leyshon: 205K @ cc 176, depleted next year.