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To: Eric L who wrote (44248)	7/9/2001 4:22:11 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Eric L: An excerpt from Seybold with comments by Ben: Message 16049123 The context - the full Seybold article: Message 16048313 <<Andrew Seybold Special to ABCNEWS.com Complications from the recent spectrum auction are poised to take a toll on most carriers. Commentary by Silicon Insights' wireless guru Andrew Seybold argues firms are waging internal wars rather than searching for solutions. Why are companies wasting time and energy waging war in the wireless industry? I recently suggested that Cingular Wireless had a problem if it didn't get the spectrum it bid on in the most recent auction. Now it looks as though everyone who bid on the spectrum is out of luck. Nextwave is getting its lost spectrum back. The firm is so sure it will retain ownership that it has entered into an $800 million deal with Lucent for infrastructure to build its own network to provide voice and data services in Detroit and Madison, Wis., and data services to their 93 other markets. Why the Wireless Wars? Nextwave's technology of choice, by the way, is CDMA2000 1x and 1x EV-DO that means a win for Qualcomm's flavor of CDMA (news - web sites). But remember, Qualcomm's intellectual property covers both its own flavor of CDMA and what is being called WCDMA (news - web sites) or UMTS. My last column drew a response from the folks at Cingular, who explained why they are considering technologies other than CDMA2000 1x, many of which are based on their current technology deployment, and some of which are based on the promise of new technologies not yet proven in the field. In any case, it missed what I consider to be the most critical piece of the puzzle: Without Nextwave's spectrum several U.S. carriers will have to wait-note: Not all Sprint PCS and Verizon are OK without spectrum until the Federal Communications Commission (news - web sites) "finds" more wavelengths to auction. This is going to be a long, drawn-out process. First, a spectrum has to be identified. Next, existing users have to plan ahead to be able to move to another spectrum. The band then has to be auctioned. It is only after the auction and incumbent users are moved that it can be turned into a usable spectrum. Don t Get Bogged Down So to me it comes back to this: If I owned a company that had a limited spectrum and my future expansion was dependent upon the feds and their auctions, I would make the best possible use of my existing spectrum. I would look to the most spectrally efficient technology and not get bogged down with internal politics or other non-germane details. Simply put, those who win will be those who make the best possible use of their resources, while those who believe that the feds will offer them new spectrum anytime soon are going to have a hard time competing. Nokia seems to be fanning the flames of these wireless wars hardest. It is interesting that Nokia (news - web sites) finally signed an agreement with Qualcomm regarding the CDMA intellectual property making it the last major vendor to do so. Meanwhile, the folks at Nokia are traveling around the world giving a presentation that uses distorted information to try to prove that GSM (using some new technology) and Wideband CDMA are more spectrally efficient than CDMA2000 1x. Needless Battle of Technologies I simply don't understand why a company with Nokia's stature and reputation feels so strongly about its own wireless roadmap that it has to not only over-promise what it can deliver, but denigrate the proven technology capabilities of CDMA2000 1x, which it now has a license to sell. The wireless industry is embroiled in a needless battle of technologies. Some operators are likening it to the battle between Beta and VHS recorders. But this isn't the same. Handset vendors are already designing handsets that can move between technologies. No one has to lose, and if people honestly believe that CDMA2000 1x is like Sony's BetaMax, they are acknowledging that it is, in fact, the best of the technology. But because it is Qualcomm's flavor of CDMA, it is not the politically correct technology to use. My belief is that carriers using CDMA2000 1x will be up and running with high-speed data first the Korean system already has more than 400,000 users and those who don't will find themselves at a disadvantage on two fronts. First, they will be late to the high-speed data party, and second they will be reliant on the feds finding them more spectrum and making it available something I sure wouldn't be willing to do. Andrew Seybold is a consultant and top computer industry analyst. He is considered by many to be the leading authority on the mobile computing industry. He's based in Campbell, Calif. >> Best. Cha2