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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (46707)	7/9/2001 1:21:35 PM
From: Epinephrine	Respond to of 275872

RE:<I did the only thing I could do -- that is, I doubled my AMD position this morning at $20.28.> Ouch Pravin!, It sounds like you made the exact opposite move that I did. (doubled rather than halved your position). If I were to be in a situation like that with anybody then you would be one of the last that I would have chosen. In fact if capital wasn't an option then I would be joining you without hesitation. Unfortunately that's not the case and whereas you were waiting for this kind of opportunity I was already extended. That's actually my problem, for the last 8 months I have been kind of trapped. Unable to take advantage of dips because of lack of capital as the stock fell, and unable to take advantage of peaks due to the rising cost of the leaps that I was forced to sell to cover my margin call in the low teens. And also unable to just comfortably sit back and hold on since I was paying margin interest in the interim. So I actually feel pretty liberated by my sale but that doesn't change the fact that I wish I were in your shoes now. I say all this mainly to illustrate that my decision to sell was not necessarily an expression of a lack of faith in AMD but rather the facing of the harsh reality that I couldn't stay extended the way that I was in the face of the real possibility that AMD might in the short term fall below my ability to cover maintenance calls. (was around 16.50). Basically I think I have lost my nerve :( Epinephrine PS: Oh well, good luck to you, hopefully I can be good at "bouncing back" as you once said you were :)

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (46707)	7/9/2001 1:36:26 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 275872

Re: "I doubled my AMD position this morning at $20.28." I guess you don't want to be "out" when the next AMD "Clean Kill" occurs !

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (46707)	7/9/2001 1:52:13 PM
From: fyodor_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin: the speed of AMD's new notebook penetration is astounding -- beyond my wildess expectations. It might slow down a bit now, though, with Tualatin becoming available. I think it'll be tough to gain all that much ground until Barton (although, starting at virtually zero market share, the initial gains will be easy). -fyo

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (46707)	7/9/2001 3:14:20 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin, Some data on whats happening in taiwan including nforce: Taiwan foundries see 30 percent drop in Q2 sales By Mike Clendenin EE Times (07/09/01, 10:55 a.m. EST) ALF language bolsters signal integrity features -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCD makers address environmental concerns -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RF module takes standards tack on cable telephony -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cypress 8-bit MCUs sport configurable peripherals -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TAIPEI, Taiwan — Confirming expectations, Taiwan's leading foundries released June sales figures on Monday (July 9) that were significantly lower than those seen in the first quarter. Revenue at United Microelectronics Corp. dropped 36.5 percent from the first quarter, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. reported a decline of 33.5 percent. A few months ago, TSMC said it would weather a 26 percent drop in the second quarter, similar to its first-quarter decline. Despite the larger dip in revenue reflected by Monday's announcement, TSMC said it would manage a small operating profit this quarter. The company also said it sees "positive signs of gradual improvement" for the second half and believes sales have stabilized. Some analysts attributed the hope of better times at Taiwan's largest foundry to Nvidia Corp., and none too soon. "These two companies have been doing so badly for such a long time that people are losing patience," said Chris Hsieh, a semiconductor analysts with ING Barings. Nvidia will be placing large orders with TSMC for the ramp up of its new integrated chip set — the nForce — which will be produced on TSMC's 0.18-micron process and shipped in volume this August. At UMC, where the downturn is taking a greater toll, the picture is still fuzzy. The company recently said it would lose money in the second quarter and believed the third quarter might be worse. Just last week, chairman Bob Tsao said UMC would consider temporarily closing a fab if the downturn worsened. UMC's decline was nearly in line with an earlier warning, in which the company adjusted its expectation of a 30 percent quarterly drop to a 35 percent drop. At UMC, revenue totaled approximately $123 million in June, down 52 percent from a year before. TSMC weighed in with $247 million, down 29 percent from the same time last year. Monthly sales at UMC and TSMC have trended downward since the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, sales at TSMC for the first half are 9.5 percent higher than for last year, in part because of mergers. At UMC, sales are down 11 percent for the same period a year ago. "These figures show that utilization is better at TSMC and the ASP [average selling price] is probably better," Hsieh said.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (46707)	7/9/2001 3:17:17 PM
From: milo_morai	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Good luck man! Balls of Steel I say. I got allot of money in the Telecom sector or I would have bought more AMD too. I'll just have to sit tight. I too am bullish about Laptops and nForce. I'm seeing huge changes at Best Buy, etc with respect to AMD now having 50% of all mobile models on display. M.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (46707)	7/9/2001 4:20:22 PM
From: Milan Shah	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

but the speed of AMD's new notebook penetration is astounding -- beyond my wildess expectations What data are you using as a basis for this part of your opinion? I, too, feel that the Athlon 4 and Morgan are the tickets to salvation - its one area where AMD still has a completely unmatched product, is in a position to stay in the absolute lead in the MHz race, and something where ASPs are at much smaller risk. However, I haven't found any data indicating whether AMD has made any real headway in getting laptop makers signed up. HP is the only real one, and they have only two products I believe. Compaq is there, but their story is getting muddled up in their recent memo indicating they are going to switch to one MPU vendor. Sony is there, but that story is muddled up in whether they actually have PowerNow! or not. So, its not at all clear to me that the Athlon 4 is a clear winner. nForce is too late - I think the September back-to-school season is really what sets the tone of the entire holiday season. If nForce isn't there today, they have missed this BTS season. Milan