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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (48976)	7/10/2001 12:29:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I can't say I haven't prepared for this exam, because my whole life has been preparation. 1. I truly agree with Morgan that semiconductor technology will recover to lead and drive the economy. 2. I believe that the applications that drove the past will not necessarily drive the future. That is why I picked companies with technology that is fundamental to and applicable across the entire electronics spectrum. 3. There are problems in the semiconductor and networking industries, but I don't believe that "fundamental" is the correct adjective. The industries are suffering from mania induced distortions which will have an intermediate term (1-3 years) effect. In this environment, the impact of technology transitions such as the diminishing importance of the PC, are exacerbated. Once bubble business is removed and technology business levels find a stable bottom, technology growth will resume at pre-bubble rates. 4. I believe the time to buy is when things look their bleakest. I have repeated that, when I get my prices, I will not want to buy. 5. The next point is my buy ranges, from $40 to 25. I have admitted that I fear a drop to $10, but I can't imagine much lower without me being able to buy a beach house in Santa Cruz for $120K. Once the stock gets into the $40 to 10 range, I believe that I will be able to trade the stock to lower my average cost from the average produced by just buying at each level. I have indicated that I will trade with a negative bias throughout the range. 6. I am not betting the store. I have targeted less than 10% of my net assets and less than 16% of my liquid assets toward the stock market. I believe that the accuracy of my buy levels and the success of my in range trading will determine if I get 2x, 3x, 5x, or (dream world) 10-20x my investment. I am supremely confident in the quality of my choices. In fact, I have had difficulty in trying to add a 9th or 10th company.