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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (48988)	7/10/2001 9:53:30 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

Hi Jerome, I have the same fears as well.I just always fall back on the knowledge that at worst I must "gut it out". I'm going purely on recall here - so take it FWIW.Back in 1998 I was heavily invested in Cohu. Cohu's rise lagged Amat and Nvls by 30 days as the gorillas led the upturn.If I recall Cohu finished up the last 1/4 of 98 with a loss. This was the first loss in a LONG time.Proving the downcycle was one of the worst - there was no visibility to the point where hope was gone and losses where braced for.By then (Jan 1999) price had already bottomed Oct 7/8,1998.The worst was expected, the reality had occurred, but price already was going up.By the time poor earnings were confirmed a slight uptick in backlog had occurred - no one still knew if earnings would be positive - but the key point is: price had already turned. In this sector you have to lead the fact.It's like hunting ducks,you have to shoot ahead if you want to hit em.This will undoubtedly make the analogy of the day.gggg My point is I've made peace with myself to guess how far the lead is and then you just have to "HOLD WITH CONFIDENCE". I've never felt bad bagging 40-50 points ,even though I missed the perfect bottom by 2-3 points.Same thing with missing the top - heck I missed it by 17 points last cycle.The in-between 70% of the cycle will make us just plain rich - as long as we don't miss a cycle. Cycles can be missed, by not buying because it's been lower before or not selling because it's been higher in the recent past. Missing the cycle is the sin and perfect buy/sells should be the enemy.Understand that perfect buy/sell points are just plain luck.I have no desire to even learn how to understand the fear/panic of an overmargined "sell at the market" seller or the greedy "I've got to jump on board this highflyer" "buy at the market" buyer. This is a long term game that gets continually out of persective by most players(including this humble participant) when we play the market too much. Daily observation of our life's wealth leads us very easily into an incorrect over active state of mind. I continually try to remind myself of the long term wealth creation goal I have/had when I initiate a purchase. JMHO and I wish all traders of all disciplines success. Bob

To: Jerome who wrote (48988)	7/10/2001 11:19:17 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>The viewpoint problem that I have is this.... every major and minor company is announcing lowered guidance and no end of the bottom in sight. Some companies have lowered guidance twice within the quarter.<< Sounds like a good time to buy.... Remember July 1998? That was the year AMAT announced bad financial results smack in the middle of Semicon West. Everyone was so depressed that a hospitality party at the Fairmont Penthouse thought about blocking off the balcony so people couldn't jump. That also turned out to be pretty nearly the cycle bottom. Katherine Disclaimer: As long time readers know, I don't invest in or make stock recommendations in this sector. My opinion is worth what you paid for it.