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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (79850)	7/10/2001 12:43:56 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

From my read a week ago the sentiment was very negative and any were ever I read some thing they all predicted 0.825 Euro / Dollar. On the 5th of July I think was an panic buying of dollars, since more and more articles appear that US manufacturers are hurt by the strong dollar and that the economic growth in Europe surpasses that in the US. I have been noticing a lot of chatter about the strong dollar and how it works against an economic recovery in the US. Have seen a big switch from--talk of a strong dollar to---talk of a strong dollar may be standing in the way of a recovery. There seemed to have been a sudden shift in the last 2 weeks. The public officials like O'Neill don't want to deviate from the official strong dollar line they feed the media. It is obvious what he is thinking though... especially since he did make controversial comments on this last year. Now it seems he is just afraid to rock the boat on his own. I did see the AMAT CEO, James Morgan on TV yesterday and he was asked about the dollar. His answer was he wants a "fair" dollar. If one reads between the lines, it is obvious he wants it to weaken. This is a high profile figure in the tech world and I would bet there are many others. My point is that this desire to weaken the dollar will create a self fullfilling propechy. If it does not happen on its own, I would be looking for some more aggressive rates cuts by Greenspan. The dollar's strength is in part explained by the flight to quality trades that are occuring all over the world. IMHO, he is also very aware of what weakening currencies worldwide means....less chance of economic recovery in the US..especially the all important manufacturing sector. I say important because a strong manufacturing base is the sign of a strong economy. We also see no chance of imported inflation and that becomes a bigger reason to be more aggressive in cuts. I believe those that expected the FED to stop cutting will be in for a surprise....ie..a surprise rate cut if dollar doesn't weaken on its own. BTW--it is no surprise that bonds have been doing well lately.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (79850)	7/10/2001 9:41:06 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

good catch on that Haim, the sept euro looks like it made five waves down, from 91 cents, which also looks like five waves down from the dec high, the yen also has a wave count that indicates it's getting close to a bottom, but looks like it could still go lower tfc-charts.w2d.com the rally into late 99 in the yen, made a first leg down, then a triangle followed by a 3 down into april 2001, and now looks like it should make at least a marginal new low to complete five waves down. i haven't followed currencies much lately, but it looks like we may be at a turning point. b