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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tinkershaw who wrote (1895)	7/10/2001 5:00:45 PM
From: bob zagorin	Respond to of 2293

excellent post and perspective IMO.

To: tinkershaw who wrote (1895)	7/10/2001 6:25:34 PM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

Tinker: Nice post. Relative to AVNX, aren't the key questions: 1) "do they have anything that they can sell in sufficient quantity to make a profit of what, per 12 months, starting when?" and 2) is there any technological superiority there that will enable them to go on to bigger things from there? For certain, or just maybe? I know you have partly answered these questions, but I would appreciate it if you would refine your guesses even more. Tough job, but somebody's got to do it! Namaste! Jim

To: tinkershaw who wrote (1895)	8/2/2001 12:49:33 AM
From: rainwater	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

TinkerShaw, I would appreciate your comments on some notes from the conference call... "PowerMux accounted for 80% of revenue ~ 15 MUSD... you were right about the drop being reflected by all products. However as a percentage drop PowerFilter did account for more of the drop than the newer products. However PowerExpress Metro at about 10% revenue" and a new customer by Dec 2001 - much much better than anticipated for this investment climate. This could be next quarter's surprise. and add.. Cisco as a 10% customer... also better than "mildly positive". I wish they would have clarified what exactly Cisco is doing - since that would have helped estimate the importance of a deal. I think the conference call was much better than one would have expected reading these message board predictions. What I like is that AVNX continues to be a conservative company ...for instance their loss provision (26-28 MUSD) turned out smaller ~ 22 MUSD than anticipated Having read the +ve opinions and the -ve ones I agree with your assessment that price will likely be stuck in a trading range. But I think the surprises going forward are to the upside.... not to the downside. At least they've reassured me that they will weather this storm and may emerge as a leading player.