Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oleg Sogolov who wrote (11573)	7/10/2001 5:40:09 PM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

Oleg, CPQ's 9% sequential drop vs earlier forecast is actually not too bad. There's little doubt in investors mind that a 2H business recovery is unlikely. I suspect much of that thinking has been priced in. Rumors today that IBM will issue profit warning. They're reporting next week, if they haven't warned by now, they won't. I'm betting the 2 gorillas IBM and MSFT will ignite the market next week. Hopefully MOT won't rain on the yet-to-come parade. Regards, Tom

To: Oleg Sogolov who wrote (11573)	7/11/2001 9:31:31 AM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

We had a company update yesterday, and of course it was bad.. but what really bothers me is the networkers STILL must be sitting on a boatload of inventory becase OEM business is showing 0 signs of recovery.. Im making no huge bets either way. Id love to see the market rally and im disappointed it hasnt, but this is not because I want to have longs make money but rather so I feel more comfortable adding to shorts.. This market should and probably will hit new lows by end of this summer.. Some stocks are very oversold, most are still not pricing in what has happened here and the lack of forward guidance.. I think all the easy money has been made.. everything here is just gambling/emotion causing these wild ups and downs.. if motorola somehow makes people happy we could see a huge explosion up.. and the game continues.. I have an account that the company is harping on my about because its not producing the desired results.. I put everyone in there place with this simple reality check: The account did $200,000 a month last year.. Very poor results.. WE wanted to take it to at least 1 million and thats where I come in.. We now have the account doing about $200k which they view as flat.. no change.. WRONG.. Last year, 64mb cost was $70, 128mb $170, 256mb $320, 512mb $500 Current prices - 64mb $12, 128mb $20-25, 256 mb $40-50, 512mb $120 Rambus is even better.. 1/8 the cost of last years price. Units shipped has grown dramatically.. In other words, Paul is doing a fantastic job.. So congrats to me- I wont be losing my job anytime soon but with a quota of 2 million with all my accounts, you gotta imagin how hard it is to go in every day and try and triple your phone volume and powers of persuation. Pricing obviously dosnt hurt, but thats a helluva a unit volume number to make up for collapsing prices.. but my whole point was- anyone who thinks that stocks like CCMP, AMAT, MU, INTC, AMD are cheap need to realize that this is horrendous.. To compare it to 1985 isnt fair because in 1985 it was just demand that slowed.. Thanks to comapnies liek cisco and jnpr and their insane forcasts- and frenzied buying, there is so much supply out there that it just isnt going to vanish.. No earthquake, or shutting down tawain plants is going to help.. I have no real idea where the economy or the market is going to be in the next few quarters.. but I certainly would be careful calling this a bottom when the real fallout is yet to be seen