To: LPS5 who wrote (13373 ) 7/11/2001 1:57:35 AM From: Raymond Duray Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18137 LP, I love it when I can get you riled up. You are one my most seductive debating partners here on the threads simply because you are so brilliant and insightful. And willing to see the several sides to every coin. A rare and wonderful talent you have. I don't tend to see the world in black and white myself, but I do sometimes write about that way for effect, in order to draw people out and challenge them. You, sir, are one of the few who can meet the challenge and create a spark of doubt in my own mind as to the way I'm approaching my rapprochement with Mr. Market in all his moods. Let's begin with the simple top down view of American Capitalism. First lesson. Wall Street owns Washington. Second Lesson. Washington has been hired by Wall Street to put the "full faith and credit" into the punch of the Plunge Protection Team because both WS and Beltropolis know deep in their gut that the American public are saps and emotional ones at that. They know that the little goy hedge funder and the little guy retail patzer are both gonna stinkin' panic whenever they are given the chance. This is good for the wire houses in the short run, but bad in the long run. Thus, things like the blowup on Oct. 19-20, 1987 aren't something that the powers that be want to see repeated, because it tends to destroy the public's faith in a rigged game. So now we have "curbs" on Mr. Market's tantrums. I say that's a good thing. Mr. Market is way too moody a fella anahoo. Never really having a rational justification for his positions at any moment of his gambling career. So let me address some of the points in your post: To wit: A lot of very bright people don't conclude that it was the culprit in 1987 Yeah, and your point is? A lot of very bright people were gathered by John Merriwether into a very exclusive office in Greenwich, CT and they collectively nearly blew up the world's financial markets via their "money machines" at LTCM. So what was your point about a lot of very bright people? They tend to run amok regularly. Quite simply, lots of panicked sellers at all levels, and technological inadequacy, contributed to the precipitous declines on those days LP, I'm sorry, you don't read the English language very well. I told you that Barron's reported that Allan Greenspan was unaware of the debacle of Oct. 19, 1987. Do you suppose that millions of individuals with mutual fund holdings woke up that morning and panicked collectively and told their managers to sell? Don't be a fool about this. The maelstrom of the 19th was strictly a contrived affair that was triggered, precipitated and amplified by the computer programmers who were scripting the "portfolio insurance" of the day. They were a cabal, the all had the same script and they all moved to the same side of boat at the same time. That is what f***ed up the market that day. Groupthink is the most dangerous human trait. The destruction of capital on that one day is the prime example of our herd mentality and its destructive capability. As early as 1988, the Brady Commission reported that portfolio insurance related stock- and futures contract sales each totaled no more than 20% of the respective total volumes traded on those two days. And Arlen Spector wrote the "single bullet" theory into the Warren Report. My respect for you argument dropped several notches on this line of yours. Do you really believe that Brady and his ilk would tell you the truth? My gosh, I thought you were a sophisticate. ROFL. What then does a rapidly expanding market indicate? Ahem, see above. I believe it is how the market is rigged at the time. Are you aware that lame duck isn't originally a political term relating to an office holder who's term is ending? It was actually coined in 1720, at the end of Exchange Alley, where the patzers who'd just lost their last hope in the South Seas Bubble would walk out of the alley with their worthless bonds in a most dejected air, as if they had their singed tail feathers between their legs. Let alone the small fact that the Fed's job isn't to supervise the U.S. equity markets. Believe it or not, Ray Don't get me started on the nature of boom and bust capitalism. You do recall Juniper Pierpont's role in the Panic of '07 don't you? If you are so naive as to think that equity markets ought to be unsupervised, then I've got a bridge I'd love to sell you. There is a polite lie that is told that the markets are free, and the FRB ought not to interfere with equity players. Poppycock. You do recall the absolute devastation that excess margin created in '29 thru '32 don't you? Given their head, arrogant traders will always opt for as much risk as possible, without the least regard for the consequences. Since we've already learned these lessons, isn't it wise to curb the excesses that lead to real problems for the real economy before they get out of hand? No, obviously I'm out of touch, I'm not a "free marketer". I'm someone who understands the history of business and knows it runs to excess. In 1810, the canal companies, in 1873, the railroads, in 1907, the industrial conglomerates, in 1929, radio and all that jazz, in 2000, the internet. But once the manias run their course, isn't it prudent to try to control the violence and the volitility of Mr. Market's mood swings? Aw shucks, you don't have to answer that. I'm just musing... and trying to see the big pitcher...... Cordially, Ray :)