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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moufassa7 who wrote (53191)	7/10/2001 9:34:49 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Respond to of 57584

moufassa7: My vote for the final capitulation (FWIW) to this bear market is sometime in September. This will be the third month of earnings warnings this year and these warnings will be the worst. Why? Because these warnings will finally convince nearly all investors, both individual and institutional, that: (1) there will not be a recovery in the second half of this year; (2) investors will realize Fed interest rate cuts will not stimulate spending in the technology sector; (3) the recovery will not occur until late in 2002. Remember: September is the cruelest month. DlphcOracl

To: moufassa7 who wrote (53191)	7/10/2001 10:33:03 PM
From: marvin smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

u know i should have known the economy was really getting weak. I drive a forklift for payless Shoesource. We have 4200+ stores and only one warehouse so I can tell by the volume of shoes going thru what things are like. Payless sell lower priced shoes so I think its a fair indicator of how the economy is doing. I have been there almost 10 years and this is the slowest summer i can remember. Hope those tax rebates and lower gas prices fuel the economy.

To: moufassa7 who wrote (53191)	7/11/2001 8:30:21 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I mostly agree with Moufassa that we will have some short-covering / squeeze play / burst days in July. Nothing in August but heat and humidity. And after Labor Day when about one-third of the traders return, we will probably move in whichever direction we did NOT move during July and August. October is historically when bottoms are put in. But it is also historically when new rallies begin. I'll be betting on October, however, there will be some smaller stocks that will moved upward in June and will continue through July, August and September. I'm thinking interactive TV, server farms that aren't going out of business, a few choice retailers, some lesser known techs that we have yet to discuss here. Do your DD. Rande Is