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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (11355)	7/11/2001 3:18:05 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I agree that short-term sentiment is bearish, but longer-term sentiment in the form of the II survey is wildly bullish. Also, PC ratios have tended to close well above 1.0 at important bottoms in recent years, I think 1.11-1.27 in 1997-1998. And if I'm not mistaken, I think it was over 2.0 at one point in 1994. The EMR warning is probably the most significant bit of fundamental news I've seen as of late. Has been the steadiest performer in the market for 43 years, as steady as ADP has been over the last 30+. First time they've ever warned. Could just be due to gorging in the telecom binge, but a big red warning flag, IMHO. Check out this quote from the EMR warning. Pure class: "After careful consideration, our management team made a proactive decision to not continue Emerson's record 43 consecutive years of increased earnings per share. We could have pared back restructuring and other investments, or taken other operating actions as we have done in the past, to continue the record. Doing so would not have been in the best interest of the company and our shareholders, who have clearly expressed a preference for faster growth. We have no intention of changing the way we manage operations for consistent performance, and taking this action now should position us to return to double-digit earnings per share growth sooner than would otherwise be possible." FWIW, tomorrow is the equivalent of the final peak before the '29 and '87 plunges (quarter moon after the full). Both occurred during Puetz windows, and we're tracing out the same pattern now. All that offered with a grain of salt, but I am taking it with a few grains myself.