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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moufassa7 who wrote (53263)	7/11/2001 7:07:51 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

moufassa7: Some interest comments by Laszlo Birinyi on CNBC. Laszlo Birinyi is (IMO) one of the most astute Wall St. observers. He stated that "this is the most complex and difficult market I have seen in my 30 years." He elaborated by stating that the market is driven day-to-day by news events rather than by fundamentals and monetary policy. He felt that the market going forward is trendless and warned that for the individual investor trading the market, he/she is "last in line" with regard to jumping in and out of the market. He advised extreme caution going forward. FWIW, my advice going forward: plan ahead and pick your spots carefully. Decide at what price you wish to purchase a given stock or index and wait for the stock or index to come to you. Do NOT chase rallies thinking that it will be the start of a turnaround you will miss. As Birinyi said: "The stock market is like the NYC subway system; if you miss the train, there will be another one right behind it." Good luck to all with you investments, both long and short. DlphcOracl

To: moufassa7 who wrote (53263)	7/11/2001 7:56:57 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57584

Moufassa, I don't like playing market turns unless the signs are clear. These signs are mixed at best. On the one hand, we could shake off MSFTs news, maybe pick up some equalizing bad news and being so far down now. . .there is little support left before the full retest. On the other hand, early July is usually filled with upward surprises and we still expect October to be the full retest. . .so if we were to move northward off this buoyancy into the summer doldrums. . . we wouldn't see the real retest until then. I am not convinced that this afternoons strength will hold through until tomorrow's opening bell. If it does hold straight into 2 hours into the trading day, it might hold for a few days. . .and become the burst rally before the summer trading range. Either way, I am looking forward to an uneventful period between July 16 and Sept 3 or so. . . and I think September will be more like August than like October. . .meaning I think it will be rather uneventful as well. I'm looking forward to the typical Global Economic Meltdown scare in mid-October. . .an historically rough time for Asia. And I can imagine many stocks BELOW the April 4 prices then. That will be the time for loading up with new core positions. [See AJ's "In Search of the Perfect Portfolio" board on Insighters for help putting cores together.] . . . and frankly, I can't wait to become a buy and holder for a change. There have not been many stocks worth holding the past season or so. . . PNRA, FBCE, FNSR, were great. . .then suddenly I'm wondering which others were worth it. Anything bought into this week's activity would be considered a swing trade, because I am confident that the rest of the summer will be dull, uneventful and in a tight trading range. I hope that helps, Rande Is