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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (11467)	7/11/2001 6:54:19 PM
From: Atin	Respond to of 52237

Thanks! That's what I was doing for my percentage charts so the charts look fine to me! :) -Atin

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (11467)	7/11/2001 10:42:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Obviously we were over sold and then received some "perceived" good news. ( Not sure MSFT writing off a few Billion and earning one penny is that great of news) Anyway, there are numerous bullish signs from today in the charts. I have a hard buy in the DOW. The Russell 2K retraced 50% of the gains made from Feb to April so that implies that the pullback may have just been a normal retrace and it could make further gains going forward. GE has a class 2 over sold and could gain nicely if they do well in their release tomorrow. There were numerous hammer bottoms formed today including JPM and the OSX. The OSX hammer is perfect off my lower tine but keep in mind the OSX is in the lower half of the fork which is bearish and the trend is down so I would only expect a bounce to the mid tine and probably not much more. As Don said, we weren't expecting a large move up here but with news and options expiration next week, anything is possible. We will be watching the internals closely for improvement. Also with teh XAU starting a rally, I want to see how the XAU does as the rest of the market climbs. The NDX has sizable resistance from both the longer term declining line we have been repelled by the last 9 months as well as the old neckline of the head shoulders from the last month or so. I would be watching that 1800 NDX area very closely. I will likely sell calls when we get there if not slightly before regardless of anything other than real bullish news. If the internals don't improve, I will start legging into puts a bit faster, possibly as soon as Friday/Monday. In NASDAQ Composite terms, I have first resistance at 2150 off the previous 3 peaks of the cycles and then 2400 from the longer term line. The NASDAQ has a nicer chart in regards to E-wave for a potential "C" of "4" on this push if the news will allow it. OF course upon completion of this "C", the 5 should begin down if I am reading this right. Right now the E-wavers aren't in agreement on teh count so take my read with extra salt as I am no expert in E-wave but this count is getting clearer and clearer to me. IF this is a "C" of "4", the move up could be sizable and would have just about everyone bullish by the time we get to the top. I see no believable counts that the decline is over in E-wave terms. I Maintain this whole move off the April low has been a 4 up and a 5 down WILL occur! The only bullish scenario I see longer term would be the arguement that the FOMC rate cuts will kick in soon and we made a double bottom but I am not buying it unless I see some FA signs things are improving. The EMR warning today was very bad broad based news and much more important than the bogus MSFT or YHOO news. Enjoy this ride up but be cautious as earnings start in earnest now and the mornings will be ruled by gap ups and gap downs. Good Luck, Lee ========================= Someone is betting big that GE will beat tomorrow..... Wednesday July 11, 1:51 pm Eastern Time U.S. Options- GE July calls bought into earnings CHICAGO, July 11 (Reuters) - A chunk of at-the-money July calls was bought Wednesday in options on General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE - news) heading into the diversified conglomerate's quarterly earnings expected on Thursday. By midday, about 10,800 July 45 calls, which go off-the-boards on July 20, had traded on the five U.S. options exchanges combined. Open interest in that particular call stood at 4,448 contracts heading into Wednesday's trading session. ``It was one (investment bank) buying a lot...maybe 8,000'' of the July 45 calls, said Kevin Hincks, designated primary market maker with Heartland TFM at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He also noted smaller-size buying back of short calls across other strikes. ``A lot of people who wrote calls are buying them in,'' he added. An American-style call gives its buyer the right to purchase the underlying stock at a specific strike price anytime before expiration. Across the board, total interexchange volume in GE options at midday stood at about 67,525 contracts -- 30,525 calls and 37,000 puts. That exceeded the average daily options volume during the last 20 trading sessions of around 53,540 contracts, using Track Data figures. On Tuesday, options volume totaled about 70,880 contracts for the entire day. Wednesday's call buying, coupled with the stock's slippage, helped lift implied volatility in the July options to around 40 percent from about 37-38 percent, Hincks added. Implied volatility measures as a percentage how much the options market thinks the stock price will move during the option's life. Volatility typically rises heading into options expiration and often increases just before earnings reports. The stock's one-month historical volatility, or how much the stock's price actually has moved during a certain time period, was 33 percent. Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE, the world's biggest company in market value, involved in businesses ranging from power generation to broadcasting, is expected to report it earned 39 cents per share during the second quarter, according to a consensus forecast compiled by Thomson Financial/First Call. Analysts' estimates for the quarterly earnings, which are expected early Thursday, ranged from 38 cents to 40 cents a share. GE earned 34 cents a share during the year-ago quarter. GE shares were down 78 cents at $44.98, a drop of 1.7 percent, in early afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was 16.1 million shares. biz.yahoo.com ============== Just so you know that CEOs have their investors best interests at heart -ggg- It was reported today by the SEC that Webvans CEO sold 45 million shares of his stock 2 weeks ago. Of course they anbnounced they were bankrupt and closed the doors Monday. What a nice guy!