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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (80034)	7/11/2001 11:53:58 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, I think of three things that make me believe we're still going lower before we start a bull: -World Stock Markets - Most of them are in the tank. The US should follow. Things aren't that much better here. -Economics - GDP figures for June coming out soon, and unemployment on the rise. I read a decent theory that when unemployment rises 1%, the market puts in a bottom. It seems to work pretty well. We need to get to 4.9%, and we're at 4.5% now (we hit 3.9% in October). -Earnings - P/E's are going to shoot up after the next round of earnings shows contraction in earnings. That will need to be addressed in equity prices. Downward guidance will also need to be priced in.

To: bobby beara who wrote (80034)	7/12/2001 12:52:48 AM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Didja see the cartoon in the LAT with the gigantic circus bear eating Greenspan's head?

To: bobby beara who wrote (80034)	7/12/2001 6:37:27 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99985

Bobby: Re: "tomorrows breakaway gap looks to me like a failed pattern, and i believe we could rally above the may top in nasdaq," Shorts will start this rally and they will end it. Newbie or nervous shorts will panic buy up to a point where the better shorters will re-short it at overbought putting an end to it. It could take a week maximum before a pivot. Shorts control this market. Bulls are just along for the ride. Just as bears were disappointed we did not crash and burn, bulls will be disappointed by the fact that we do not go to the moon. There is only the middle ground with a downward bias.

To: bobby beara who wrote (80034)	7/12/2001 10:31:22 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

the nasdaq has a downward angled HS pattern from the april 17th breakout, tomorrows breakaway gap looks to me like a failed pattern,* How do you figure the pattern has failed if the right shoulder has yet to be taken out? Wouldn't a bullish development be a close over the neckline, then the neckline is used as support for a break over the the right shoulder signalling a bullish failure of the pattern? Until that happens I wouls think the pattern is still in play. Please Remain, Bearic Von Bobanov <g>