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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (112229)	7/11/2001 11:52:35 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 436258

Patron, I hate talk elliot, but the last advance on the daily USD chart sure looks like a diagonal triangle, and Heinz and Allen and everyone else can tell you that those are termination patterns for trends that are ending. John

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (112229)	7/12/2001 12:17:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Well the market wanted an excuse to rally. It got one. Since this was my #1 scenario(but not by an overwhelming amt) I suppose I could have closed my QQQ's today. Will this rally have legs? Well I doubt it sincerely. 1) Already I see bulls lathered up 2) A gap up of this magnitude will be quite easy to short. SEBL back at 45 GIVE ME A BREAK! 4) Max pain on the QQQ is 44. Since open interest on QQQ is immense compared to anything else, we stall at that point I believe. 5) There is just too much bad news out there 6) MSFT (did anyone really look at the numbers). Microsoft Corp. said on Wednesday quarterly revenues would be higher than expected but that it will record a staggering first-ever investment loss of $2.6 billion. #6 is truly unbelievable. Revenue comes in .2B higher but they take a $2.6B hit and this is good news? UFB!!! Sorry bear but this is horsesh*t! Microsoft was expected to earn 42 cents a share, according to the consensus analyst estimate compiled by Wall Street tracking firm Thomson Financial/First Call... Including the non-cash investment loss, earnings would be 1 cent per share. MSFT includes investment gains on the bottom line when they are good but excludes them when they are bad. Oh well so does everyone else. Mish is waiting for Pro-Forma sales figures that include cancelled sales on the basis they will get them next quarter. Then when the sales do come in, they can count them again. The SEC will crack down on earning reports BUT not until the end of this bear market when it will be too FN late. The reason they will not do it now is they NEED to prop this market up. Can someone really tell me what the growth in MSFT is expected to be? I see no real growth. I do see a very recurring stream of income based on upgrades but this will be cyclical not really growth. Higher than expected sales of software??? Well I have heard this lie before but perhaps they did not expect any(In which case they could be shocked to find they have any sales at all). Note, I am not discounting MSFT as a solid investment(at the right price). They do make $$$ year in and out and I fully expect them to keep doing that. AS such they are worth a premium to other companies. But what premium? No that that rant is over........ The alternate scenario #2 was a tank on YHOO's poor performance (and it was a poor performance IMHO), then a strong rally for the rest of earnings. Now I have to think of the very real possibility the rally is tomorrow, period, end of story cause the market is too greedy and after they force out all the weak shorts GRAVITY reumes. We will see, but I am sticking to a 2 1/2 day MAX rally call ending no later than Monday NOON. That said, no way in hell am I buying that gap up tomorrow. However, the MM's may attempt to run a never ending series of stop losses tomorrow. They would have a better chance of success IMHO if they did not gap up as hard(as there will surely be selling pressure at the open or as soon as the rally stalls). Again, however, that huge coupon pass from Greenspan could really trigger a stronger rally (I just doubt it). Mish thinks that Greenspan is directly somehow propping this baby up with cash and that the powers that be are in on it. That is just my cynacism but this orchrestration is totally UFB. Finally, I really believe there is a chance we close down tomorrow. If that happens I will be laughing my ass off. I do not think this is a high liklihood, but a very real possibility of 20% or so. So here we are at 43 again on the index with max pain at 44. Delta hedging will send this soaring if QQQ's stay way above 44 towards expiry but my worst case scenario for a big headfake up is to 44.5 on the QQQ then down hard. If we see another round of lies perhaps we pull another April but do not count on it. I see expectations of a 2 week rally. I do not buy it. Slowly but surely J6P has to be learning something here. J6P is a very very slow learner but when hit 3 times in the head with a brick, he may see a pattern. Note: the first step in training a mule is to hit him in the head with a stick three times, as hard as you can. Then you have his attention. Even J6P has to be getting suspicious here. Each rally has a smaller and smaller bounce. Look at VRSN. Huge "deal" with MSFT (really meaningless IMHO) stock gaps up 6, finishes up 3 and goes 2 points in the hole from that announcement in two days. Enough for me and I closed a poor trade as my original entry point was 2 days early(escaping with a small profit). QCOM falls to 56 and rallies to 60 AH on news of MSFT. Mish is 100% totally tired of this blatant BS. What does MSFT and QCOM have to do with each other. I saw a post today that said throw TA out the window and FA out the window. I would like to add TA and FA are both meaningless now. Just trade sentiment! I have been trying to do just that actually. VIX VXN TICK TRIN watching closely. Trying to gage over greedy bearish sentiment and overbullish sentiment. As best as I could tell we were balanced and there was a lot of fear in some bears on this last whipsaw. Some went long yesterday and got stopped out at the bottom today. In the end we all know where this is headed, just wish it would get there. As for me, I am definately not buying that gap up tomorrow and I have to see if I want to close that S/L on QLGC at the open or not as it will trigger if I do nothing. If you have short term PUTs that are still profitable, consider taking them off the table. I issued that caution yesterday. My QQQ's are sept so all I have to do is be right by then. Will I be, well perhaps not, but I am fairly confident (Oh the advantages of longer term puts!). Right now I am sticking to my call of one more headfake up (and this is a doozy) and then we tank. If tomorrow cloes down or even just even after that huge gap up, we fall to 1850 in a straight line over the next 5 days. A big IF but a distinct possibility. If we cruse thru earnings and all the bulls get more lathered up, I buy a ton of QQQ puts (possibly leaps) after the earnings run. That has been my plan and I am sticking to it (so far with neutral to moderate success). Trying to day to day time this would have made things generally worse (except for a cash out today). M