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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (33340)	7/12/2001 10:09:39 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69822

Extreme EPC stats: Commentary: Yesterday's equity market decline took fear to a relatively high level. The CBOE equity put/call volume ratio registered a reading of 0.917 in Tuesday's trading, meaning that there were 91 puts transacted for every 100 calls traded. For a historical comparison, there have been only eight occurrences (prior to yesterday) since 1990 when this daily measure was 0.90 or higher. Having such a high put/call ratio is a relatively new phenomenon, as all of the previous situations have occurred since 1998 (August 21 and 31,1998; October 8, 1998; October 15, 1999; December 15, 2000; December 26, 2000; March 13 and March 16, 2001). The market has performed fairly well following these signals on a one-day (1.03-percent return with 88-percent profitable), five-day (1.70-percent return with 57-percent profitable), 10-day (1.47-percent return with 40-percent profitable), and 20-day basis (4.1-percent return with 60-percent profitable). One interesting caveat to yesterday's put/call ratio is the relatively low level of the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 26.53). In the previous eight occasions when the put/call ratio was higher than 0.90, the VIX averaged a closing reading of 36.26. With the VIX well below this average, the test of April's lows may be imminent, as these two indicators typically work in conjunction at an intermediate market bottom. schaeffersresearch.com