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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49119)7/12/2001 3:27:43 PM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 70976
 
Jacob, re >Given the fact that flows of money into stock mutual funds (a proxy for the consensus "gut feel") always bottoms at market bottoms, and always peaks at market tops, it is hard to do worse than "gut feel", as a model for predicting the future.<

Some people train their gut to be contrarian. :)

Gottfried



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49119)7/12/2001 10:05:33 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
>>"Gut feel" equals extrapolating the current sentiment into the future.<<

Maybe your gut feel works that way. But what about the gut feel of an experienced floor trader who can just tell--he isn't sure how--when the tide is about to turn? Or the gut feel of an industry veteran who has seen several cycle bottoms up close and has learned to spot the early signs that fundamentals are improving?

Katherine


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