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To: Shack who wrote (6991)	7/12/2001 4:31:52 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Shack.....one thought of caution....I think the Fed is scared shiteless about Argentina.....Heinz noted that the last 4 day pump was the LARGEST in HISTORY (hopefully, I'm not getting that wrong)..regardless, it was HUGE....and no doubt, related to Argentina... So, yeah, I think this rally is totally bogus....but if the banks know the Fed is going to pump big-time short-term (apparently Argentina on-track to run out of money by end of month), are they going to go nutz long (like '98, '99)...I dunno... would welcome debate from anyone..

To: Shack who wrote (6991)	7/12/2001 4:35:17 PM
From: GrillSgt	Respond to of 209892

Sure..I have an observation. Softie is sitting just under solid resistance at 72 with max pain sitting at 65.

To: Shack who wrote (6991)	7/12/2001 6:32:02 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

“The bear is dead,” proclaimed Alfred Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards. “The fuel for bearish sentiment has been lousy corporate earnings, but that’s antique news now. And anyone that hasn’t discounted the likelihood of poor earnings has been in a coma for the last three months.” msnbc.com

To: Shack who wrote (6991)	7/13/2001 2:45:50 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

did the vix confirm an island reversal today? my drunk observation tonight. I'm gonna short the sh*t out of this market tomorrow/monday

To: Shack who wrote (6991)	7/13/2001 8:38:06 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

Intermediate term thoughts, statistics and historical data (bearish) Interestingly enough, based on historical data dating back to 1971, July marks the start of the worst four Months of the year for the Nasdaq; and a quick glance at the data on the SPX from Jan. 1950 - June 2000 will point to August, then September, as the two worst performing months of the year respectively. August has become the worst month in the past 15 years Quarterly seasonal rally statistics for INDU Winters in 37 years averaged 13.9% avg rally low to high Spring 10.9% Fall 10.5% Summer 9.6% Post election years bad when Republicans follow Democratic Administrations. Since 1913 there have been 4 Republican administrations that followed Democratic Admins... 1921 Harding... continuation of post war bear 1953 Eisenhower...beginning of post war bear into major Republican bear of '57 1969 Nixon...Starts worst bear since 1937, continues with 2nd administration and worst bear since 1929 1981 Reagan...Recession and bear Each one marked Either the start...or the continuation of a bear market. and one final interesting observation: One should notice while the NAZ Comp has gone through a major correction, the NYSE Comp has not. The NYA (NYSE Comp) for the most part has been trading sideways since Jan 99 with a slight upward bias. It remains to be seen which direction this multi year consolidation will break. Message 15895629 (I believe it will break down) Best Regards to all, and have a great weekend. JM