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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (112434)	7/12/2001 6:46:41 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 436258

thank goodness. we finally found a recession indicator <g>

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (112434)	7/12/2001 6:48:25 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 436258

No, just pricing in the incredible productivity gains of the internet economy which have effectivlely reduced our need for any form of energy....<G>

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (112434)	7/12/2001 6:50:17 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 436258

Just another example of how dangerous it is to buy a cyclical sector after a big runnup on the idea that "this time its different."

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (112434)	7/12/2001 6:53:55 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Yep, I see the OSX decline as representing demand shock throughout the world. There's another data point from the St.Louis Fed's weekly monetary release that's interesting (and supports the theory of progressive liquidity trapping): stls.frb.org stls.frb.org In the first link, obviously MZM is growing at a pace that's incredible, given current GDP growth of say 2% (and I'm being generous). Note in the 2nd link in the bottom chart, C & I lending. It's absolutely falling off a cliff, and is now down to where it was 1 year ago, despite the MASSIVE increase in money supply. Why? Banks won't lend to non-creditworthy lenders anymore (and companies that ARE prudent and credit-worthy aren't borrowing, by and large). And as we know, the SPX is lower now than it was in January, when the current easing cycle began (ie, the "money" isn't finding it's way into stocks). So where is it? Most likely it's in institutional money funds...but the money here isn't "on the sidelines" able to be spent at a moment's notice (unlike retail money funds). In essence it's a placeholder for the debt created by the GSE/mortgage securitization craze. Voila...an instant liquidity trap, growing and dangerous. An uncle Al printing press antidote, if you will. In fact this is the "mystery reason" why the Fed cuts have not weakened the dollar...those ClownBux never hit circulation, they are trapped. Amazing that the powers that be don't see it (or maybe they're just afraid to talk about it in public). Therefore, no inflation, a strong dollar, great earnings by the Banksters, and shriveling business for everyone in every other industry (retail's pass is just about to end, cause J4P broke open the refi piggy bank in January and he's about done spending down his home equity). Layoffs are increasing, and when the housing markets packs it in, it is OVER! EDIT: One other point, if the CPI DOESN'T rise, it means Greenie has been unable to overcome the trapping I mentioned. Finally the tax cut DOES successfully circumvent this, temporarily (err, unless it's already been spent and people are floating the "cut" on their Visa card balances already in anticipation for money they know they'll be getting).

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (112434)	7/17/2001 11:02:35 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

yes, you can rely on CNBS 100% in that department...OSX is simply reflecting the fact that global demand (in general) is falling off a cliff. the decline in exports of the Asian 'tiger' states is symptomatic of this...we're looking at over 20% plunges quarter-on-quarter in some cases. this is the fastest deteriorating in-sync global economy since 1974. of course, that means we should buy the SnP at 28 times trailing earnings (and likely 35 times prospective earnings, since same are plunging at a huge clip also) according to WS's leading lights.