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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (44346)	7/13/2001 12:20:26 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Respond to of 54805

Beyond that there is still a question of whether Qualcomm will be the gorilla of mobile data wireless, and that is not yet possible to nail down. First, I am way long on Qualcomm. IMHO, Qualcomm is obviously the gorilla of wireless mobile data. Every important player has signed a license deal with Qualcomm. Virtually all carriers of mobile wireless data systems have committed to some form of CDMA. That makes Qualcomm the gorilla of wireless mobile data. By the way, the transformation of analog/tdma/gsm/cdma/wcdma (lol)/cdma2000 is a good example of Christianson’s disruptive technology theory as I am sure you guys know. Any ideas you have on that would be helpful. Ok, here are my ideas on the whole wireless data/2G/2.5G/3G shebang. 1. Mobile Voice is and will remain the biggest application. 2. Demand for mobile wireless data will grow slowly. 3. Carriers need to maximize capacity and minimize infra costs for both voice and data. CDMA2000 is clearly the best for this. qualcomm.com 4. WCDMA is inferior in everyway and was created to bypass Qualcomm’s IPR as well as create IPR for the GSM Cabal. The attempt to bypass Qualcomm’s IPR has failed in court and the all the important licenses have now been signed to prove it. The GSM Cabal will continue to push WCDMA because if it is installed successfully, they will make more money off it than CDMA2000. The key point here is that the CARRIERS make the most money by installing CDMA2000. 5. If WCDMA does get installed, I believe that it will be a flop plagued with problems and delays. Contrary to Qualcomm’s “nice guy” approach, i.e. we don’t care which you choose –WCDMA or CDMA2000, just so long as you install it quick, I think that moves to WCDMA may be disastrous for carriers due to very expensive bulildouts and non working systems which result in low cdma handset sales. 6. I think the GSM/WCDMA suppliers are losing massive credibility with failures of GPRS and delays in WCDMA, which bodes well for CDMA2000. Overlays of GSM/TDMA systems with CDMA2000 may not be as far fetched as we thought. So bottom line: 1. Qualcomm is the Gorilla of mobile wireless data. 2. Size of the mobile wireless data market is as of yet undetermined. 3. Qualcomm will be successful. The extent and timing of their success depends on a) the ratio of bulid-outs of WCDMA and CDMA2000, b) how bad the GSM Cabal screws up WCDMA, c) and as above, the demand for wireless data. Caxton