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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (80131)	7/12/2001 8:40:27 PM
From: Nancy	Respond to of 99985

zeev, thanks for analysis on jnpr. i was wondering how much we should give the P/S. when there is no growth or very little growth, the P/S becomes important. csco historically traded at 3x at trough and just 5-6x when it was doing well, that was before the mania. so may be your 7x on jnpr is about right, given it is a yound company.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (80131)	7/13/2001 8:38:07 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I have looked at the numbers and at their "looking forward statement", it seems that for the next two quarters at least, the yearly earnings rate will be in the range of $.36 to $.40 per share (no counting "non recurring charges"), unless there is good reason to assume that growth rates in the 50% annually will resume shortly (and they say these will not), the current pricing of the stock is out of line with most rational valuation models. It does not really have much to do with the valuation model for this stock....IN THE NEAR TERM. It is the high degree of pessimism that existed in this industry. That of course meant higher degree of selling and shorting. That is why it is setting up for a BIG rally...make that a short covering rally. By big rally, it may just mean the resistance level you cited of 37.75. But that is a big move. I was betting that they would be guiding down for the next 2 quarters..possibly with losses. A reason why I had been buying and selling puts (hedge against other longs in tech). My logic was quite simple...small companies like JNPR would be pushed into losses if their larger competitors start cutting prices. Just like Intel forcing AMD into losses like they did this quarter. BTW--If I see the Naz moving, JNPR should make significantly larger gains than the index. For example, if Naz goes up 25, I would expect to see JNPR in the 33 to 35 range.