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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Calladine who wrote (499)	7/13/2001 6:50:46 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

Hi Jim, There are no right or wrong questions. There are only questions. So, taking yours in order … <<1) What are the major economic trends that affect commodities?>> Demographic trends State of economy/politics State of finance/money State of global standards impacting the commodity in question <<2) Are any new commodities being created by that?>> Yes, data storage, DRAM chips, bandwidth and MBAs are relatively new commodities, but given their globally standard configurations, unitised sales/price, and applications, they are commodities, similar to coffee, wheat, porkbellies, metals, and monetary commodities such as gold, silver and the USDollar. <<3) Are any moribund old-line commodities going to spring into life as a result?>> Yes again. Auto catalyst, data storage and coming fuel cell applications are making platinum mining a more worthwhile effort. Diversification need for monetary commodities may bring new dynamism to gold mining. Genetic engineering may effect certain agriculture commodities in ways I am not able to foresee. <<4) Which people operate the functional equivalent of a hedge-fund for commodities that aim to take particular advantage of new developments?>> All commodities are different, involving different sets of varied players, such as financiers, producers, explorers, large users, regulators. There are money management groups focusing on specific commodities, such as gold or oil, etc. <<5) Are there any true innovators in the world of commodities? Doing what?>> Gene modified food. Platinum application for fuel cell. Additives for gasoline. Higher capacity DRAMs. Cheaper telecom bandwidth. Gold carry trade. Just as the better known examples. <<If anyone has any knowledge …>> I know nothing about commodities, except that I must use many of them, repeatedly, at higher prices if necessary. Chugs, Jay

To: James Calladine who wrote (499)	7/13/2001 1:36:35 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 1643

>> 1) What are the major economic trends that affect commodities? << here are a few: --almost 100 million people born every year. they need food, clothing, shelter, etc. approx a third of the chinese population is high school age or less, a relatively young nation. --the collapse of state controlled economies and the spread of capitalism around the world, leading to greater standards of living--hence greater consumption. --greater environmental awareness, which puts constraints on the use and production of some commodities, and spurs demand for others. panics like mad cow and foot and mouth can have profound effects short-term. --global unification of markets. trade agreements and deregulation are having large ramifications for global trade in commodities. china joining the wto is just the latest example. if china is going to build it's nation to greatness it's going to need to open up trade with the world. --obviously technology plays a large role in the costs of production for commodities. --energy also plays a large role, because whether you are a farmer, a miner, a driller, a smelter, a lumberjack, or a transporter of commodities, it takes energy to do all that. --water and the weather also plays a role --politics always plays a large role, and disparities in wealth seem to cause dichotomies which affect commodities. --war can mean price controls, stockpiling of strategic commodities, supply interruptions, etc.