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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hayduke who wrote (49148)	7/13/2001 2:22:19 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

OT:re: why am I 80% long, 20% cash, no shorts, if I think the market's PE should be half what it is? Half my net worth is in a housing stock, CMH, which I bought in increments last summer. It has doubled, and I have started selling in increments the portion which is in LT cap-gains territory. With the remainder of my money, I am trading the ranges of a variety of stocks. I'm playing short-term movements within channels, holding a few days, to a few weeks, rarely more than a couple of months. On that time frame, there is plenty of money to be made, both long and short, even if the longer-term trend is still down. At the moment, all the stocks I had been shorting have reached the lower end of their trading range, so I closed my last large short position last Friday. But, if NVLS hits 56, or QCOM hits 65 tomorrow, I'll be buying put LEAPs in them. Also, not all sectors are going to bottom together. Below 2000 on the Nas, there isn't much out there to short. But, if we get another 50% rally in the SOX (already had 3 of them so far in this bear market), I may be net short. At some point, the market will stop going down, and then go into an extended period of volatile sideways movement. We may already be in that phase, at least for several tech sectors. If I'm really smart and really lucky, I'll guess correctly the right year to go back to LTB&H. Just as the decline has had several huge rallies, which offered good selling opportunities, the next bull market (which I'm guessing doesn't start till 2002), will have several huge declines, which will offer opportunities to establish LT positions at prices not too much higher than the trough levels.