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To: Paul A who wrote (128306)	7/14/2001 11:02:34 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

>> Incidentally- what is your view of this market going into next month? << gosh i'm not sure i can predict anything one month out. i do continue to believe that we are in a bear market and the primary trend is down. until the market can prove otherwise that is the way to play it. we could easily have a rally for a month going into mid-august, now that pre-announcements are over with, but i believe it will be short-lived. i continue to believe we are in a trading range until the fall, so there's no point in going hog wild with the shorts or longs. like i said before, heading into sep/oct is the key. by then we should have clear evidence of the rate cuts kicking in and guidance from companies should improve. commodities and gold should stop deflating, forecasting an economic rebound. the yield curve should give a signal as well. if none of this happens, then the bulls will have no leg to stand on, because they will have had their 9 months for rate cuts to work. if the market starts to rally hard in the fall then bears will have to hibernate for the winter and accept that the bottom is in, even if we don't go back to the heady growth of the 90's. now if i had to pick which scenario i think will come to pass right now, i would say that the market will head toward the lows in the fall for a re-test minimally, and likely new lows, only this time the dow and s&p will participate in the sell-off to a much greater extent than previously seen.