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To: mishedlo who wrote (112646)	7/14/2001 11:51:46 AM
From: S. maltophilia	Respond to of 436258

I nibbled at MTG 2003 puts for the same reason. Preemies looked reasonable and you have less perceived government involvement in MTG. They had what looked to the Street like a great quarter but seemed like they were deteriorating to me.<g> FNM & FRE puts are always tempting but more expensive than they used to be.

To: mishedlo who wrote (112646)	7/14/2001 2:07:16 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

Pay attention to the details on that one, Mishedlo. It's interesting that purchases are steadily eroding, but the key change is that refi's are falling off a cliff (see the 2nd chart): dismal.com I agree that will hurt FNM and FRE, but has wider implications as to liquidity. The refi boom is over, the great sucking sound we've been hearing from draining home liquidity in order to finance lifestyle is over. Over the next 2-3 mos this should become apparent, in terms of decreased retail spending (+/- tax cut effect), increased bankruptcies, increased defaults on consumer lending. I'm looking at FNM poots for the end of the year/beginning of 2002. That should give the situation ample time to "ripen". All IMHO only....