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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (39013)	7/14/2001 10:05:25 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

I fully expect gradual decrease in economic activity just when everyone expects to see gradual improvement in the infamous 2nd Half of the Y2001 this is gonna take a looonnnnnnngggggg time to work out forget this V-shaped pollyanna crappola gonna be elongated U-shaped gonna be close to 1991-92-93 watch those underpinnings to the consumer world they are eroding now, just when people expect response to the ultimate goomba panacea... Fed rate cuts dead profitability, steady rising layoffs, nil gains in capex this has hurt the consumer world, and will get a little worse before better THE CENTRAL KEY IS HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE commercial is hurting, resort is hurting residential is hanging on but refinances are flat quiet like a knife on the edge, jobs and layoffs will determine the next turn in residential real estate and consumers will tighten or loosen as a consequence my guess is gradual weakening of the main pillar of ReallyState funny how Fed hikes can destroy growth so much faster than Fed cuts can revive growth reminds me of a guy who fell out of the 5th floor he is in the hospital intensive care ward Dr Greensperm enters to give him a green liquid IV the nurse opens the window partway and observers expect the patient to rise, walk, work, and thrive in a couple months not gonna happen!!! he needs months and months of time to heal, revive I love the metaphor "Pig in the Python" / jw