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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (92302)	7/14/2001 10:50:09 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Respond to of 95453

George, I think $16 number would be appropriate in light of the way the fed as been expanding the money supply. It's a question on whether the Middle East will accept it. Regards Frank P.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (92302)	7/14/2001 11:23:02 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Maybe so. But based on the monthly chart -> futures.tradingcharts.com A break of $26 shows very little in the way of technical support until the low to middle teens. Actually George, this break, should it occur, would clearly signal, worldwide economic growth is much slower than many anticipate. Lower, in fact, than current predictions of 2.5 world gdp growth. That is a scenario that I both expect and have publicly predicted. IMO world gdp numbers will be seen to be far closer to 1% over the coming 3 qtrs than to 2.5. You can call me big bear when I call for $10 oil. <g> Considering that the whole world economy has slowed, (not just Asia and a few developing countries) worldwide demand has to be waaaayyyy down while OPEC production is only a few percentage points off of near full production. Additionally "Russian" production continues to ramp to the extent that in a matter of months (not decades) that Russian production may equal or surpass Saudi production. Not trivial. Add new production from Angola and you have the recipe for a TYPICAL oil bust. Recently the Iraquis have announced the resumption of production which should should contribute to the overproduction of crude relative to demand. What I find incredible, is that so many see so little a possiblity of a major oil bust; reconfirming the cyclical nature of the oil business. Actually, the burden of proof is now on the bulls. Why can't a major oil bust occur? What is the basis of your claim that oil will hold in the low twenties?