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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semiconeng who wrote (139209)	7/15/2001 11:46:17 AM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

>What you seem to be overlooking, is that the capacity being brought on-line, is at 0.13u, not 0.18u. The smaller design size that will be manufactured at Fab22, plus the continued ramp of Fab20, will more than take care of any capacity issues arising from larger die sizes.< Intel: 90mm2 0.18-micron Coppermine to 140mm2 0.13-micron Northwood = aproximately 50% increase in die size. >It has been widely reported that there is a delay in the shipping of 193nm Litho Steppers. I doubt that AMD is at the top of the waiting list. Your presumption that "20% of this ramp being on 193nm equipment in Q4" is wishfull thinking at best.< What has been widely reported is a delay in delivery of steppers from Intel's stepper supplier. Sure this supplier stated that this problem was endemic in the industry, but they also stated that it would be resolved in 4-6 months from the time that they issued the statement. If we believe them about it being endemic, and therefore affecting ASML as well as themselves, we might just as well believe them in the 4-6 month timeframe, which would be in time for a fourth quarter ramp for AMD. >It's interesting how at the beginning of your message, you ignore the volume increase from intel's transition to 0.13u, yet here you tout it for AMD.< 90mm2 for Coppermine to 140mm2 for Northwood will not increase volumes. 128mm2 for Palomino to 80mm2 (or even 90mm2) for Thoroughbred will increase volume. >Your statement is assuming of course, that AMD can get their 0.13u Process working during that timeframe. Not a quarantee at all. In contrast, intel has been manufacturing 0.13u in Oregon's Fab20 since the beginning of this year, and by the end of this year, they will be starting the shipping of this same technology in their 2.3 Billion Dollar Fab22.< Well, if you consider samples to be manufacturing, AMD has been manufacturing 0.13-micron from the beginning of the year as well. If you move the timeframe forward to beginning of Q2, you have a point. By then Intel was demonstrated true volume capability, while AMD won't until at least Q4. This is indeed a crap shoot, but AMD has only failed on rapidly bringing a new process online when they went it alone (0.5-micron and 0.25-micron). In this case, they have been teaming up with Motorola from day one. No guarantee, but enough to give me a lot of confidence in AMD. Indeed, I have higher confidence in AMD bringing 0.13-micron online quickly than an economic recovery before Q2 2002.