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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (5861)	7/15/2001 7:15:55 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Tradermike, nothing much happened in the world that was not within expectation while you were absent from the thread, and I do check into your website every-so-often. Our collective thread imagination ranged pretty broadly, from CB's 1930s history, DJ's Euro perspective, Maurice's techno-dom rise, Pezz's small cap leading the way, Marek's gold is now or later, and many other thoughts helping to define the range of imagination, complemented by the Jay's News Service & Editorial that confused all including myself. Well, a confused mind is one that says "no", and so I continue to cower in a huddled position within a shadowed corner hutch, scoping down at the great plains below. I did short a bit of NEM Dec 20 puts and NEM Dec 22.5 calls, netting about $5/share when NEM was at 21 something. I am still looking for a Christmas present trade that will finance something I do not deserve, and time is running out. Chugs, Jay

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (5861)	7/17/2001 6:52:11 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

TM I have to leap to Uncle Al's defence. He's my idol! I find him perfectly intelligible [and much more so than the sometimes ignorant questioners who ask his stuff in Congress]. He doesn't talk in complicated lingo. He uses simple language which is intelligible enough for my liking. No abstruse jargon - just clear descriptions of what he's thinking. <On Wednesday the Scared Crow is going to testify in front of the US Congress. Our representatives will probably ask him some pointed questions about growing unemployment, but he'll deftly dodge them and talk in riddles and complicated sentences that baffle and confuse everyone. Whenever he speaks to the public his intention is never to speak straight or honestly. Instead he tries to make it sound like what he is saying is extremely complicated in order to give the impression that he is some sort of super genius and all you can do is sit there passively and trust him. He has the most arrogant public persona in Washington. Reality is that he has mismanaged interest rate policy these past few years. The result has been a stock market bubble and an economic downturn that will be probably end up lasting much longer than it should have. > Neither does he have an arrogant persona. He seems demure, respectful and polite. Sure, he makes some funnies on the way. I like that. He certainly isn't cringing in front of the questioners and I see no reason why he should be. He's the one who knows and they are the ignorant ones trying to understand how it all fits together within the political system they are trying to run. Reality is that he's done a great job of stopping the irrational exuberance in the dot.coms and tech stocks [and the Dow]. He was ready for Y2K. He coped well with the Asian Contagion. He reacted quickly once the steam went out of the economy when the dots.bombed and techs.wrecked and cut interest rates flat out. Now, the whole world is trying to get away on him and he is well aware that the US$ which he manages is propping up a hell of a lot more than some SUVs and malls in the USA. The whole world's watching and dependent on the market stability he has a hand in creating. Of course he is only a bit player, but an important one nevertheless. He can't produce more oil out of thin air, stop wars, invent new productivity enhancers. But he can keep the means of exchange well-oiled, tuned up and functional. There hasn't been an economic downturn - the rate of growth around the world has bitten the dust and growth is nearer zero than 5% or more in some cases which was enjoyed for years. Production is still much the same as last year and the year before that. Hardly a serious situation. More interesting is the debt management and repayment programme being forced on the world as those holding depreciated assets find their debts exceeding their assets or at least so high that they have to sell [ahem, some of us were well aware of the need to avoid such a situation but due to special circumstances ended up exactly where we knew not to be]. That is a bit of a wild animal still to be tamed, from Hong Kong, to Tokyo, down to Argentina and up to Wall Street. Mqurice