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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3268)	7/15/2001 6:19:23 PM
From: CF Rebel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

Thanks to FezKoprucu on the GX thread for this: teledotcom.com _______________ When Too Much Is Too Little by Kate Gerwig tele.com 07/13/01, 10:42 a.m. ET Service providers were a little dispectic a few weeks ago over a series of front-page stories in major newspapers that cried “fiber glut,” and with good reason--there may actually be an undersupply of fiber. According to some carriers, the news stories saying there was too much fiber in the ground to be used efficiently hurt their chances with investors, and it was a needless injury since a new bandwidth measurement tool created by TeleChoice Consulting, Inc. shows that on a majority of routes, a capacity “glut” simply isn't there. A software model created by a consultancy to help Williams Communications Group (Tulsa) with its capacity planning showed that 16 out of the 22 routes studied (more than 72 percent) are at the 70 percent capacity level--indicating that more, not less, equipment, lit fiber or new construction are needed. Williams is a major reseller of capacity to other carriers. TeleChoice's interactive model, dubbed MadCaP (Model for Advanced Capital Planning) allows service providers and equipment vendors to build a model of their current and future network builds. The model can also be used to drive a rational pricing approach. Rather than selling bandwidth at flat-rate prices, some underbuilt routes could command higher prices in more of a supply-and-demand model. MadCaP's initial long-haul analysis revealed that major routes in over-supply -- like New York to Chicago, for example -- are the ones that have been in chronic undersupply in the past, said TeleChoice President Christine Heckart. While Wall Street analysts have been concerned about the amount of unlit fiber in the ground, Heckart said dark fiber has nothing to do with today's capacity. “If fiber isn't lit already, we're talking about a six-to-nine-month process of lighting it. It's not like a liquid asset that you can turn up fast,” she says. To make a build economically feasible, carriers have to put 10-20 years worth of fiber in the ground each time they go to the trouble of building new physical networks. They shouldn't plan to use it immediately, Heckart said. In addition, looking at raw bandwidth capacity doesn't tell the full story of what's available to customers. Every network has its overhead -- from IP to frame relay to ATM. The TeleChoice tool takes overhead into consideration Heckart said the consultancy is making MadCaP available to service providers and equipment vendors alike, along with a series of updates that will be available either quarterly or every six months. While TeleChoice has completed its analysis of several long-haul routes, the model can be used to tailor routes for individual providers. The company will begin an analysis of metropolitan area network capacity next, Heckart said. “No one has this information, not the financial analysts who say there's a glut, and not the FCC (Federal Communications Commission),” she said, adding that providers need it to decide whether they should buy fiber from someone else on an overbuilt route or build it themselves where there's not enough. To use MadCaP as a planning tool, every provider makes different assumptions and looks at the different types of applications they think will be running over their networks. Telechoice looked at 26 end-user applications that will drive traffic, and individual providers can load their own assumptions and route information into the model.