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To: GST who wrote (128416)	7/15/2001 6:21:51 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>a pillar of the economy which alone has kept us out of recession. You forgot about housing, and I'm not talking about high end homes. Consumers must have some kind of a home to take their purchases back to.

To: GST who wrote (128416)	7/18/2001 2:16:47 AM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

> But I am not of the belief that rate cuts, even combined with lower oil prices, will lead us out of the woods as hoped. I'm curious as to why you think that interest rates won't work. Is it because this is a recession driven by a collapse in capital investment? With capacity utilization at 18 year lows, according to today's data, it looks like it will be a while before manufacturing capital investment rebounds. Or do you think that the high dollar will hurt exports? Given the state of the rest of the world it looks like it will stay high for a while. I think that with consumer confidence about to get a boost from tax refunds and lower gas prices, and with low interest rates helping to keep construction strong, that the medicine should work as it usually does. If the patient needs more then non-existent inflation and the strong dollar give the Fed plenty of room to increase the dose.