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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (92318)	7/16/2001 3:29:48 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 95453

Slider, you make two assumptions (implicitly at least): First, you assume that a viable energy policy for the U.S. means developing more resources--the solution proposed by the Administration. Second, you assume that world demand, at least in the first part of the next ten years, will not be enough to cause huge spikes in fossil fuel prices. The fact is that worldwide demand is about to increase very rapidly as countries like China continue their high speed industrialization. In the next four years, China will more than triple its use of motor vehicles, and that will continue to force China to be a net importer of oil. A fast pace of industrialization in other Asian countries, excluding Japan, also increases demand by amounts that people unaware of the huge masses of population in those countries can't believe. China is so populous that its consumption of oil and gas could approach that of the U.S. in ten years, unless there are alternatives discovered in the meantime. If you factor in the huge worldwide growth in demand for crude oil and natural gas, add to it special situations, such as the need to eliminate the use of coal in the Beijing area to make the air quality better for the Olympics, you will have difficulty figuring out how oil prices can remain as LOW as $25 per barrel. Art