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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (80259)	7/15/2001 8:52:50 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

NV, since I am the only on still suspicious of this mini rally here, and view it as an extension of a major distribution pattern, I would note that your comment: "The drops in oil/gas stocks (and other defensive areas) also seems to suggest investor appetite for those defensive sectors is giving way for more growth oriented stocks., is actually bearish, not bullish. The nature of the evolution of bear markets is that the stronger segments (and you can add to that the drugs, including MRK, just hitting a new yearly low) die last, furthermore, the last leg in a bear is usually the most merciless. Yes, if we have a close above 2250 on strong volume and excellent breadth, and new highs exceed at least 250, I may wear my horns again. But with less than 30 stocks in the NDX above their 200 days moving average...I would say we have more troubles ahead. I have pointed out to few additional "teltale signs, such as the behavior of MSFT, QLGC and BRCD, and would like only to add, that the SOX is painting a series of lower highs and lower lows quite systematically since May 22nd, and where the SOX goes, the Naz cannot be far behind... Zev

To: t2 who wrote (80259)	7/15/2001 9:59:09 PM
From: gem-x	Respond to of 99985

NewVision...the elliott wave count on the NASDAQ is very bullish, and sooo many positive events, contrarion indicators and stats like the NASDAQ and the NYSE with short interest at all time highs (all time highs!!) are pointing at an "extended wave 3" this week. It's crazy how everything is falling and converging into place. I can run off quite a few. Upside earnings surprises, tanking gas prices, "safe sectors" with formerly great turning ugly wave charts in drug, energy, and food stocks , the "6 month" rule on rate cuts, tax rebates coming in a week, incredibly high short interest, the Vix spiking to 30 last week, very low expectations for earnings, overwhelmingly bearish Silicon Investor web site. And of course, the expanded flat on the NASDAQ that has fooled all the shorts...all the shorts swear the the DOW NASDAQ and SPX are in head and shoulders patterns. Nope. They are all in expanded flats, which is 3 waves down, 3 waves up and 5 waves down....this has fooled sooo many shorts, everybody on every web site and on CNBC swear it's a head and shoulders formation....and for Elliotticians, the situation and possible run up on the NASDAQ is the absolute perfect bullish scenario. The expanded flat on the NASDAQ consists of: (After the 5 wave jump to 2233 on the NASDAQ) Wave A: 3 waves down 2233 to 2057 Wave B: 3 waves up 2057 to 2328 Wave C: 5 waves down 2328 to 1934. Basically an expanded flat is a bear trap, and this bear trap could cause one mega rally... This is options expiration week! If the scenarios play out perfectly, the NASDAQ is gonna crash hard....crash UP hard.

To: t2 who wrote (80259)	7/15/2001 10:57:58 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Respond to of 99985

Don't know what will happen in the market, but in talking to people who have some insight to what is going on in tech companies and infrastructure companies in the San Jose, San Francisco area I have come to the conclusion that many are betting on a recovery pretty soon. Although business orders have dropped drastically, many companies are either filling last year's orders, completing construction projects begun a year or more ago, or letting people sit doing non-productive work. I hear a lot of stories of work-groups with nothing to do. That is good--disposable income remains relatively high--and bad--companies have high negative cash flow. I believe their is the potential for a rapid acceleration of layoffs and bankruptcies if things don't recover in the third or fourth quarter. In the mean time, earnings may worsen during the third quarter. Of course, this may be a local problem. Has anyone else got a handle on this?

To: t2 who wrote (80259)	7/15/2001 11:54:48 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I'd say we're in for a sizeable short squeeze and some recovery-minded optimism. Time is on the side of the longs now as we get closer to the end of this bust cycle. Expect Greenspan to cut down to 3% if necessary. Also expect technical value rebounds in many of the most downtrodden. In other words, there's some money to be made here. Maybe no big rallies but just firming up and gradual recovery. Lots of earnings coming out this week. I also wonder what energy stock earnings will do to their now-depressed stocks prices. Got to be huge windfalls.