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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (75793)	7/15/2001 10:05:23 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Jdaasoc; Thanks for the predictions. I'll make a note of them, but one question: With regard to "RDRAM will be within 30% of SDRAM or DDR by Sep." Are you referring to RDRAM chips? You know that I'm quoting prices for cheap RDRAM RIMMs, and they include the popcorn stuff that both RDRAM and DDR require. If so, I would agree that RDRAM chips will eventually get within about 30% of both SDRAM and DDR chips, but I wouldn't think to see it by September. September isn't very long. Do you mean September 30, LOL? As far as the cost of popcorn logic being $11 for DDR, that price difference is only at the module level, not the chip level, and with the crash in the chip market, you can expect that prices for popcorn aren't what they used to be either. My prediction is that the majority of DDR sold (as evidenced by parts counts on PriceWatch, for instance) will continue to be unbuffered. -- Carl P.S.

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (75793)	12/5/2001 1:46:59 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi Jdaasoc; Back on July 15th, you made two predictions about memory, and I specifically noted that I would keep track of them: Jdaasoc, July 15, 2001 "I have only made two predictions about memory pricing. 1) RDRAM will be within 30% of SDRAM or DDR by Sep. Since MM seem to able to flood the market beyond any natural level of demand with 128 Mbit SDRAM or DDR for $2.00 for a month or two with no end in sight and one going bankrupt; 128 Mbit RDRAM could easily sell for $3 at this rate. These prices would put the cost difference for 256 MB for a P4 computer at $16. RMBS stock will stay below $10 a share because royalties will stay below anything one has predicted so far. Please don't call me a dreamer that believes that RMBS is going to triple digits or even double digits soon. 2) PC's with DDR DRAM sockets will by and large will need to be registered DDR memory in computer configurations that compete with RDRAM. The need for $11 of popcorn and it's associated wait state (latency) will exceed the price difference with RDRAM and limit it to use in high memory configuration like servers. #reply-16079500 Bilow, in reply, July 15, 2001 "Thanks for the predictions. I'll make a note of them, but one question: With regard to "RDRAM will be within 30% of SDRAM or DDR by Sep." Are you referring to RDRAM chips? You know that I'm quoting prices for cheap RDRAM RIMMs, and they include the popcorn stuff that both RDRAM and DDR require. If so, I would agree that RDRAM chips will eventually get within about 30% of both SDRAM and DDR chips, but I wouldn't think to see it by September. September isn't very long. Do you mean September 30, LOL?" #reply-16079612 Jdaasoc, in reply, July 15, 2001 "Sep 30 2001 to be exact. If back to school demand or an earthquake in Bosie Id or bankruptcy of Hynix doesn't occur by then DRAM especially RDRAM will continue to drop and drop and drop." #reply-16079644 Bilow, in reply, July 15, 2001 "I would also expect RDRAM prices to continue dropping, along with DDR, and less with SDRAM, but RDRAM has manufacturing issues that will force the memory makers to switch RDRAM lines off before they switch off the SDRAM lines. The memory makers have a history of treating their RDRAM production (as well as other niche memories like SGRAM) on a produce only for firm order basis, so the prices aren't likely to go as low, I'm guessing. We'll see soon enough." #reply-16079713 . . . Your prediction (1) that RDRAM was going to be within 30% of SDRAM or DDR by September 30 is busted. My own figures show that RDRAM never got below 140% over DDR pricing before Sept 30, and closed the month at 200% over DDR: #reply-16730467 You were also wrong about RMBS staying in single digits, but you were very close, and it's true that royalties sucked, and sure enough RMBS did stay under triple digits. As far as (2) "PC's with DDR DRAM sockets will by and large will need to be registered DDR memory in computer configurations that compete with RDRAM", I'm not sure what to make of the statement. SDRAM beat the daylights out of RDRAM in whatever configuration low end P4s were being sold into, and now RDRAM production is undoubtedly being reduced. If you'd been right about (1), and RDRAM had gotten down to around SDRAM pricing, you'd probably have been right about (2), and RDRAM wouldn't have lost big time market share to SDRAM and (soon enough) DDR. As far as "limit to use in high memory configurations like servers", I would think that it's time for you to admit that you were wrong, and that unregistered DDR will take over the mainstream as well as servers. That DDR will also take over the workstation niche is obvious to me, but you may not be willing to admit it yet. The various dual DDR channel machines from nVidia and Intel should be a clue that high priced RDRAM is doomed in the workstation market, but maybe you won't admit it until Intel actually announces availability, LOL!!! By contrast, my prediction that RDRAM wouldn't drop as far as SDRAM and DDR was correct, and that the memory makers would milk the market by keeping RDRAM expensive was spot on. In addition, I've been predicting that DDR is the next mainstream memory (since it first became obvious to me 2 years ago), and my predictions, that once flew in the face of industry observers like Dataquest, are now seconded by pretty much all industry observers. -- Carl