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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (44497)	7/16/2001 1:09:51 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Uncle Frank: Go to any computer store or PC distributor. Ask the manager about his inventories (I do this several times per year right across the U.S.). Check out the comments of the CEOs of ANY of the PC distributors in their latest quarterly comments. Check into the daily pricing of memory spot markets and ask why those prices continue to fall. Check out the comments of Samsung or Hyundai or Taiwan Semi (the big guys in memory) with respect to their inventories. Have a look at the recent inventory growth as reported by darned near every semi/PC manufacturer. Have a peak at the 10-Qs of just about any of the big chip manufacturers and compare the inventory sequential growth. On trucking, have a look at the quarter to quarter or Y-O-Y numbers for ANY of the Major U.S. trucking companies (down 40% Y-O-Y for most). Check out the Baltic shipping rates (or better yet, brokered ship "day rates"). The figures you posted support my point of view (inventory liquidation slower now than in May), but to really see how much deterioration we are experiencing, check out the NAPM numbers over the past three years. Think we don't have PC/semi saturation? PC unit sales are down approximately 15% so far this year and no one wants to even talk about the decline in revs. In the cell arena, we entered the year with an estimated 175.0 million units in surplus globally. So far, cell phone sales are weaker than last year (which were well over 150.0 million units short of expected sales). Best, Earlie Best, Earlie