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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (92348)7/17/2001 9:54:39 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Respond to of 95453
 
Re: Long term investing. I rely on fundamentals and am only interested in long term opportunities that look sound over a period of at least five to ten years. The prospects for fossil fuel, particularly crude oil and natural gas, look good for this time period because of what I previously noted; namely, that the rate of consumption of these resources is growing faster than the rate of new reserve discoveries. I certainly agree that under the current scenario, oil service companies and those involved in drilling might have to endure falling demand. I look at the companies involved mainly in oil and gas production (and much less in refining or distribution) as the best strategic investments in conventional energy. I then focus on the companies with the best management, most conservative debt positions, and the best record of new discoveries as the prime targets for investing. Many of the companies in this category can easily make money in the present market, with oil and gas prices at their present levels, or even at lower levels.

Now if you really want a contrast in profitability, take a look at the "solid" earnings released by Johnson & Johnson earlier this morning. Here is one of the best run health care companies with growing demand for its products, yet able to eek out less than a ten percent increase in its earnings. Take a look at the PE for this highly regarded company and then compare it to the prices and PE's for oil stocks. That's why, in my view at least, an investment in a primarily producing company (as opposed to the integrated companies, refiners, or marketers) seems both logical and
reasonable at current prices.

Art