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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (49228)	7/16/2001 4:54:39 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael, With SEMI's equipment we have a tough call, especially, this year. What conclusions can we draw from the facts that we now have. One, AMAT"S prices based on Orders, Shipment and BTB numbers should have already been at $20 or even in the teen's. Two, The institutions have been holding the stock up to their present prices. Three, the Y2K, electronic purchase should becoming obsolete now or within the next couple of years. Four, I understand, that it takes 9-12 months for AMAT or Semi equipment makers to produce the equipment before they reach end users. Five, technology is here to stay. Six, Gottfried's and my data demostrate that July-Oct. are normally at the low stock price points along with orders, shipments and BTB. The ultimate question, IMO, is whether the institutions will sell AMAT and the SEMI Equipment stocks in mass and take the chance of missing the train, again, as it pulls away from the station? But, maybe, my logic is incorrect. I noticed that Gottfried purchased at $41. I believe that AMAT lows this cycle is at $39, correct? If we believe that the institutions will let the stock drift lower then Cary's approach is probably correct. However, if not, then Lester E.'s approach of holding is correct. Lester E.'s approach, if I recall correctly, was to buy and hold. His statement was, "All I know is AMAT goes up and down and in two years my portfolio doubles." But, today, we had a high volume day of 27+ million as compared with an average of 19+ million with this drop in price. When is AMAT's earnings due out? IMO, the conference call will be the most important followed by CEO Morgan's appearance on CNBC the following day. Just my opinions. Paul