Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (44555)	7/16/2001 10:50:46 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 54805

Malcom: With respect to inflation, it depends on how one defines it. Certainly the U.S. government has seen fit to change the way inflation is measured some 19 times over the last few years,..... in every case, using methods that make it look better than it is. Greenspan talks publicly about inflation as it relates to consumer prices.... and as measured by the Labour Dept. Yet if one examines the many methods those rascals have employed to make the numbers look better than they really are, then one can't help but become a bit more cynical about their publishings. Take their "hedonic pricing". This is nothing but a cheap trick, and it is just one of many they have developed. And by the way, a perusal of some of Greenspan's earlier writings sure underlines that the old boy is much more in tune with real inflation, which is the available money supply vs produced GDP. Not that I think any of us should worry a fig about inflation. The central governments of the planet only have one decent weapon with which to try to stave off the powerful deflationary wave that has been gaining momentum over the last few years, and that is juicing their respective systems with liquidity via money printing (which is inflationary by definition but who cares). They are doing their best, but the stats just keep showing a losing battle being fought. With respect to a bottom, IMO, we have a long way to go. As noted earlier, earnings are in free-fall, and with lay-offs and corporate shrinkage well underway, generically it is difficult to spot any factor that could reverse the spiral. Falling earnings result in falling stock prices. Your reference to Warren Buffet is ironic. He is smart enough to change with the times. I read everything he puts into print and he is every bit as bearish as I am. Read his stuff from the last two years and you will see what I am getting at. By the way, he has been a serious seller over the past two years, but as his activities move markets (and he knows this) and as he is the epitome of ethical, his selling has to be somewhat low-key. Astute investor that he is, he strongly recommends moving to much higher levels of cash (to have plenty of ammo when this mania flushes)and he is following his own advice. How has he been doing this? Normally, he NEVER buys anything with his own stock, but last year, he acquired a huge reinsurance company that was loaded with cash by purchasing it with his own stock. End result is exactly the same as if he has sold tons of every one of his "long term holdings". Clever lad. (g) Best, Earlie