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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eichler who wrote (80303)	7/16/2001 8:46:43 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Well you scared the crap out of me. ng Covered SEBL for +1.5 leaving another 5 on the table. Covered VRTS for +2 leaving another 4 on the table. Still holding MU. Covered EBAY for +1 leaving only a tad on the table. This is what I see and no one else seems to be with me. 1) Market drops big - everything 2) INTC CSCO MSFT QCOM EBAY stop dropping (helping to prop up the index 3) Everything but the big guns keep getting slaughtered 3) Then rally in everything taking MSFT QCOM EBAY CSCO make bulls feel warm and fuzzy. But we have way lower lows on the garbage like CIEN JNPR BEAS etc. 4) selloff in the garbage marking a lower top 5) Loop back to #1 At this point we need to see what MSFT QCOM INTC CSCO do. That is all that is holding up the index. Q. Are the big guns rallying because institutions are buying tyring to prop up the index, or did these rise because of max pain manipulation. Perhaps that is the same thing. You have to admit it is an easy way to slaughter stocks while having the index look not so bad. As for a retest of the April bottom.... I am not sure I see it now unless MSFT joins the party in a big way. At the rate we are going, JNPR will be at $15 and MSFT will be at 66. People waiting for that bottom test may not get it. If MSFT holds at 69 another 100 point drop on the Naz and ANY positive news will send this thing up. Oddly enough, even though you have turned bearish, I am nervous as hell cause of how beat up everything but the big guns are. OTOH I look at garbage like ROOM making news highs and EBAY at a PE of 260 I sense over-optimism that will be crushed before we truly can bottom. Also, how long can they prop this market up by institutional support of MSFT? Eventually it has to crack. Just wish to hell it would and stop torturing me. M