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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (47912)	7/16/2001 9:34:41 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, <Flash $200M CPU: 4M durons at $40 each $160M 3.5M Athlons at $90 each $315M 0.5M A4 mobiles at $120 each $60M Misc $50M Total = $785M Breakeven at $830M Loss of $45M> I have a feeling that competition is going to be intense on the Athlon side and ASPs will drop disproportionately compared to Durons. The sense I got from the conf call was that AMD got shut of the spring refresh (and that's why we all saw AMD SKUs disappearing from retail April and May) but Jerry bought back the market share by going aggressively after back to school. If my hunch is right, we will see an explosion of Durons in the retail market over the next few weeks (reclaiming the old K6-2 market share). Intel cannot counter this with Celeron because of the MHz problem and Intel cannot counter it with P3 because that will kill Intel's ASPs (assuming P4 missed the back to school). Based on this, I would expect to see 4-4.5Mu Durons at about $50. Continuing with the above line of thought, Intel will try to make up for the Celeron share with aggressively priced P4s. I also think that Intel has several million Socket-420 (the old socket) P4s that they need to get rid of - to ensure that the socket 470 (the new socket) transition is clean. I see the old socket-420 P4s being discounted all the way down to $100. That will increase Intel units and reduce Athlon ASPs. I think it is possible that Athlons will be in the 3-3.5M range at an ASP of around $80. The only positive news is on the laptop side. The best I can tell there are still no good volumes on 1GHz PIIIs and 1/1.1GHz speed grades from Intel will not be plentiful until Tualatin mobiles ramp. And having Compaq/HP and especially Sony is going to be very positive for AMD. AMD may be able to sell 0.5-1M A4/Duron laptops at an ASP of $130+. The only major player that is missing in action right now is Toshiba. If Toshiba shows up early in the quarter then there could be further upside. Flash should come in at $200-$300M though probably closer to the $200M number. (I think it is possible that Jerry is sandbagging by forecasting another "up to $100M" decline in flash). I am hard pressed to see a dramatic changes in cost structure in one quarter so breakeven should be closer to $900 than $830. Bottom line: Right now, it is a crapshoot - too many variables. I would keep my eyes open for the breadth of back-to-school cycle and Brookdale ramp. Chuck

To: kash johal who wrote (47912)	7/16/2001 10:06:38 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

"and then getting breakeven if laptops do better than i expect." And they might. Apparently, the bulk of the Palominos are going into laptops to the point that the desktop chips have been delayed. I suspect that the 1.1GHz and 1.2Ghz chips will be popping up soon, these probably would have been the 1.4 and 1.5GHz desktop chips if the voltage was raised to 1.75 volts. This is also likely the reason why the mobile Tualatin has not been seen, Athlon4s took their sockets and Intel is loath to launch without a partner...

To: kash johal who wrote (47912)	7/16/2001 10:19:51 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: Here are my numbers, welcom comments back: Chenbro is featuring their new Case/PS combo for AthlonMP on their home page: chenbro.com.tw Inwin has the Q500-460 available for AthlonMP systems. If 50K boards are sold, 100K processors would be required to go with them. Some buyers will use Thunderbirds in their SMP boards, but other buyers will put Palomino server chips in regular motherboards. I'd add in at least 100K chips at an ASP of $150 to account for this. I think that your mobile numbers are low, but that desktop Athlons will be reduced to make room for more server Athlons - I'd cut desktop Athlons by .5 million and increase mobile Athlons by .5 million. An extra .4 million Durons puts AMD in the black for the quarter.