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To: rolatzi who wrote (92371)	7/16/2001 10:24:35 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

All true, but keep in mind that fossil fuel replacement has been developing for decades already. For example, insulation. Japan is near a declining population level or already there. Here is a chart [I suppose it's accurate enough]. xist.org showing some estimates for 2050. From that chart, it seems that populations overall will dramatically increase [but I can't see how Bangladesh can get from 120 million to 220 million by 2050 - they won't fit in and something will happen before that happens!]. What a mess that chart paints for the poor, heavily populated places. The wealthy world's populations are disappearing while the poor burgeon...hmmmm, will rethink... gee, 2.2billion in 'old India' including Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. Wow! That's a lot. They'll buy a lot of CDMA phones! AIDS in Africa seems a catastrophe in progress so I wonder if Nigeria will really go from 115m to 340m by 2050. I doubt it. The economic base for Africa and the Indian region is not too good. I wonder if they'll get through to 2050 without mayhem cutting numbers [Europe had some serious reductions sometimes...war, pestilence]. As you say, if all the world wanted to drive SUVs and fly in 747s and live in big hot/cool houses, there would be a lot of oil gone. But an SUV isn't the only way to live and the road crowds would be impossible in most cities [since roading such as the USA developed will never be built]. There are other options, from photovolatics to biomass, nuclear to coal and Orinoco crudes. Mq

To: rolatzi who wrote (92371)	7/16/2001 11:13:14 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

Duplicate/eom

To: rolatzi who wrote (92371)	7/16/2001 11:15:32 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

Good points. Maurice might also want to look at past periods of population decline and subsequent resurgence for perspective. Look at the 14th century in Europe. Barbara Tuchman wrote an excellent book about it titled, A Distant Mirror. Or look at the literal depopulation of Persia (Iran) other areas in the 13th and early 14th century by Tamerlane and other invaders. It's staggering. You have to read it to get a sense of the magnitude of the slaughter. As a %age of the then existing population in the region, it was greater than the mass murders inflicted by the Nazis in WWII !! There an innumerable examples through the ages of very long cycles of change in fertility as well as death rates in the human race. I hardly think projecting current trends long into the future is a sound exercise, Maurice. One example that some here may remember: In the late 70s there were confident predictions that crude oil would be $90/bbl in less than 10 years. I'll leave it at that. I'm packin' it in for the day. Cya all tomorrow. Cheers, Isopatch